Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$107.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 26 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,438

Combined PnL+$199.55

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares878

Combined PnL-$307.23

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$569.05	$662.34	+$93.28	56% 14453-11241 (25694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$392.37	$662.34	+$269.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$176.68	—	-$176.68
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 77.7¢	$497.45	$453.98	-$43.47	56% 13462-10496 (23958)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$433.32	$307.24	-$126.08	56% 6834-5328 (12162)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.5¢	$281.27	$307.24	+$25.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$152.05	—	-$152.05
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67¢	$303.29	$382.18	+$78.89	55% 6662-5474 (12136)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 76.5¢	$270.07	$352.97	+$82.9	70% 19902-8330 (28232)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.4¢	$231.35	$290.39	+$59.04	58% 12757-9131 (21888)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 81.1¢	$210.11	$217.59	+$7.48	54% 9424-8028 (17452)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 98¢	$151.98	$155.02	+$3.04	62% 40487-24844 (65331)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$115.84	$111.06	-$4.79	62% 16934-10482 (27416)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.5¢	$82.72	$111.06	+$28.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$33.12	—	-$33.12
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$90.54	$88.99	-$1.55	56% 11574-9151 (20725)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$53.17	$82.64	+$29.47	65% 14940-7968 (22908)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$49.25	$67.95	+$18.7	60% 14506-9855 (24361)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.9¢	$40.05	$67.95	+$27.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.9¢	$9.2	—	-$9.2
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 94¢	$82.08	$60	-$22.08	82% 26523-5688 (32211)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$66.59	—	-$66.59	61% 11454-7459 (18913)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$74.94	$59.99	-$14.95	56% 18706-14465 (33171)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$42.84	$59.99	+$17.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$32.1	—	-$32.1
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 70¢	$69.11	$68	-$1.11	57% 11276-8599 (19875)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 30.6¢	$53.05	—	-$53.05	57% 10203-7584 (17787)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$59.71	$50	-$9.71	56% 7608-5983 (13591)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$84.91	—	-$84.91	55% 14629-11762 (26391)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 94¢	$52.13	$46.1	-$6.03	58% 14652-10395 (25047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$59.03	$65.9	+$6.87	75% 22946-7517 (30463)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$68.31	$40.69	-$18.27	67% 13299-6604 (19903)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Downavg 59¢	$49.04	$83.12	+$34.08	47% 329-365 (694)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$22.55	—	-$22.55	68% 24550-11742 (36292)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$21.15	—	-$21.15	23% 13696-45390 (59086)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$569.05

Value

$662.34

PnL

+$93.28

Record

56%

14453-11241 (25694)

Both legs:

Down$392.3759.2¢+$269.96

Up$176.6843.6¢-$176.68

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$497.45

Value

$453.98

PnL

-$43.47

Record

56%

13462-10496 (23958)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$433.32

Value

$307.24

PnL

-$126.08

Record

56%

6834-5328 (12162)

Both legs:

Down$281.2791.5¢+$25.97

Up$152.0525.7¢-$152.05

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$303.29

Value

$382.18

PnL

+$78.89

Record

55%

6662-5474 (12136)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$270.07

Value

$352.97

PnL

+$82.9

Record

70%

19902-8330 (28232)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$231.35

Value

$290.39

PnL

+$59.04

Record

58%

12757-9131 (21888)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$210.11

Value

$217.59

PnL

+$7.48

Record

54%

9424-8028 (17452)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$151.98

Value

$155.02

PnL

+$3.04

Record

62%

40487-24844 (65331)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.84

Value

$111.06

PnL

-$4.79

Record

62%

16934-10482 (27416)

Both legs:

Down$82.7274.5¢+$28.33

Up$33.1239.4¢-$33.12

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$90.54

Value

$88.99

PnL

-$1.55

Record

56%

11574-9151 (20725)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$53.17

Value

$82.64

PnL

+$29.47

Record

65%

14940-7968 (22908)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$49.25

Value

$67.95

PnL

+$18.7

Record

60%

14506-9855 (24361)

Both legs:

Down$40.0558.9¢+$27.9

Up$9.28.9¢-$9.2

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$82.08

Value

$60

PnL

-$22.08

Record

82%

26523-5688 (32211)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$66.59

Value

—

PnL

-$66.59

Record

61%

11454-7459 (18913)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.94

Value

$59.99

PnL

-$14.95

Record

56%

18706-14465 (33171)

Both legs:

Down$42.8471.4¢+$17.16

Up$32.143.1¢-$32.1

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$69.11

Value

$68

PnL

-$1.11

Record

57%

11276-8599 (19875)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$53.05

Value

—

PnL

-$53.05

Record

57%

10203-7584 (17787)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$59.71

Value

$50

PnL

-$9.71

Record

56%

7608-5983 (13591)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$84.91

Value

—

PnL

-$84.91

Record

55%

14629-11762 (26391)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$52.13

Value

$46.1

PnL

-$6.03

Record

58%

14652-10395 (25047)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$59.03

Value

$65.9

PnL

+$6.87

Record

75%

22946-7517 (30463)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$68.31

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$18.27

Record

67%

13299-6604 (19903)

seeeeeeb<$100

Down

Invested

$49.04

Value

$83.12

PnL

+$34.08

Record

47%

329-365 (694)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

—

PnL

-$22.55

Record

68%

24550-11742 (36292)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

—

PnL

-$21.15

Record

23%

13696-45390 (59086)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 26 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x082cf33c...067d2b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792927500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$93.28

CrouchPredictions

Down — $453.98

-$43.47

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$126.08

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $382.18

+$78.89

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $352.97

+$82.9

GoodFallen

Down — $290.39

+$59.04

thesidehustle

Down — $217.59

+$7.48

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $155.02

+$3.04

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.79

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $88.99

-$1.55

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