Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,709

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Down11 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,647

Combined PnL+$774.93

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$1.2K	$990.09	-$197.79	56% 14453-11241 (25694)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$784.58	—	-$784.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$403.3	$990.09	+$586.79
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 65.1¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	56% 6834-5328 (12162)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.09	93% 20228-1619 (21847)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 55.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$52.21	56% 13462-10496 (23958)
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR	Upavg 52¢	$866.21	—	-$866.21	55% 200-165 (365)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$699.88	$559.51	-$140.38	58% 12757-9131 (21888)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$472.76	—	-$472.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$227.12	$559.51	+$332.39
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 47.4¢	$282.99	—	-$282.99	56% 7608-5983 (13591)
NIULAI4	Downavg 42.3¢	$274.33	$411.77	+$137.44	78% 8927-2524 (11451)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$401.13	$404.61	+$3.48	57% 11276-8599 (19875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$191.59	$404.61	+$213.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$209.54	—	-$209.54
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 65.8¢	$402.49	—	-$402.49	55% 6662-5474 (12136)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$366.71	$346.75	-$17.96	61% 11454-7459 (18913)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$165.86	$346.75	+$180.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$198.46	—	-$198.46
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$252.08	$392.12	+$140.04	57% 10203-7584 (17787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$120.99	$392.12	+$271.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$131.09	—	-$131.09
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$276.87	$318.77	+$41.9	82% 26523-5688 (32211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$138.07	—	-$138.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$138.8	$318.77	+$179.97
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$117.91	$152.28	+$34.37	54% 9424-8028 (17452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$84.06	—	-$84.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.2¢	$33.85	$152.28	+$118.43
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 63.4¢	$191.04	$147.24	-$43.8	65% 14940-7968 (22908)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.4¢	$117.92	—	-$117.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$73.11	$147.24	+$74.12
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 48¢	$123.62	$153.31	+$29.69	64% 12560-7010 (19570)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 53.9¢	$161.65	—	-$161.65	53% 12465-11120 (23585)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 90.4¢	$125.79	$132	+$6.21	58% 16086-11671 (27757)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$113.5	$71.99	-$41.51	56% 11574-9151 (20725)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$88.66	—	-$88.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$24.84	$71.99	+$47.16
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$119.25	$113	-$6.25	82% 53794-11789 (65583)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.3¢	$61.35	$113	+$51.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$57.9	—	-$57.9
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$85.72	$87.89	+$2.17	62% 16934-10482 (27416)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$30.45	$87.89	+$57.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$55.27	—	-$55.27
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$65.54	$64.22	-$1.32	55% 14629-11762 (26391)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$39.58	—	-$39.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$25.96	$64.22	+$38.26
ohioism	Downavg 48¢	$72.04	$150.08	+$78.04	76% 24065-7754 (31819)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$68.25	—	-$68.25	68% 24550-11742 (36292)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 13¢	$25.71	$197.25	+$171.54	60% 14506-9855 (24361)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,187.88

Value

$990.09

PnL

-$197.79

Record

56%

14453-11241 (25694)

Both legs:

Up$784.5854.7¢-$784.58

Down$403.340.7¢+$586.79

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$1,673.52

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

56%

6834-5328 (12162)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,097.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.09

Record

93%

20228-1619 (21847)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,027.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$52.21

Record

56%

13462-10496 (23958)

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793CTR

Invested

$866.21

Value

—

PnL

-$866.21

Record

55%

200-165 (365)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$699.88

Value

$559.51

PnL

-$140.38

Record

58%

12757-9131 (21888)

Both legs:

Up$472.7655.4¢-$472.76

Down$227.1240.6¢+$332.39

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$282.99

Value

—

PnL

-$282.99

Record

56%

7608-5983 (13591)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$274.33

Value

$411.77

PnL

+$137.44

Record

78%

8927-2524 (11451)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$401.13

Value

$404.61

PnL

+$3.48

Record

57%

11276-8599 (19875)

Both legs:

Down$191.5947.4¢+$213.02

Up$209.5457.8¢-$209.54

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$402.49

Value

—

PnL

-$402.49

Record

55%

6662-5474 (12136)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$366.71

Value

$346.75

PnL

-$17.96

Record

61%

11454-7459 (18913)

Both legs:

Down$165.8647.8¢+$180.5

Up$198.4653.8¢-$198.46

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$252.08

Value

$392.12

PnL

+$140.04

Record

57%

10203-7584 (17787)

Both legs:

Down$120.9930.9¢+$271.13

Up$131.0945.6¢-$131.09

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$276.87

Value

$318.77

PnL

+$41.9

Record

82%

26523-5688 (32211)

Both legs:

Up$138.0755.9¢-$138.07

Down$138.843.5¢+$179.97

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$117.91

Value

$152.28

PnL

+$34.37

Record

54%

9424-8028 (17452)

Both legs:

Up$84.0641.6¢-$84.06

Down$33.8522.2¢+$118.43

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$191.04

Value

$147.24

PnL

-$43.8

Record

65%

14940-7968 (22908)

Both legs:

Up$117.9263.4¢-$117.92

Down$73.1149.7¢+$74.12

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$123.62

Value

$153.31

PnL

+$29.69

Record

64%

12560-7010 (19570)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$161.65

Value

—

PnL

-$161.65

Record

53%

12465-11120 (23585)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$125.79

Value

$132

PnL

+$6.21

Record

58%

16086-11671 (27757)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$113.5

Value

$71.99

PnL

-$41.51

Record

56%

11574-9151 (20725)

Both legs:

Up$88.6664.8¢-$88.66

Down$24.8434.5¢+$47.16

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.25

Value

$113

PnL

-$6.25

Record

82%

53794-11789 (65583)

Both legs:

Down$61.3554.3¢+$51.65

Up$57.968.7¢-$57.9

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$85.72

Value

$87.89

PnL

+$2.17

Record

62%

16934-10482 (27416)

Both legs:

Down$30.4534.6¢+$57.44

Up$55.2757.2¢-$55.27

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$65.54

Value

$64.22

PnL

-$1.32

Record

55%

14629-11762 (26391)

Both legs:

Up$39.5844.9¢-$39.58

Down$25.9640.4¢+$38.26

ohioism

Down

Invested

$72.04

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$78.04

Record

76%

24065-7754 (31819)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$68.25

Value

—

PnL

-$68.25

Record

68%

24550-11742 (36292)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$25.71

Value

$197.25

PnL

+$171.54

Record

60%

14506-9855 (24361)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x901a5475...b1026d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792927200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$11.09

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

+$52.21

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Down — $411.77

+$137.44

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$3.48

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Up — $0

-$402.49

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