Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 59%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,802

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares739

Combined PnL-$329.19

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 38.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$59.43	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$611.1	$1.2K	+$591.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$650.49	—	-$650.49
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$902.6	$977.29	+$74.69	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$626.32	$977.29	+$350.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$276.28	—	-$276.28
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$813.01	$815.41	+$2.39	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$425.68	$815.41	+$389.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$387.33	—	-$387.33
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 3.8¢	$43.1	$1.1K	+$1.1K	77% 23196-6978 (30174)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$455.8	$465.61	+$9.81	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$237.1	$465.61	+$228.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$218.7	—	-$218.7
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$461.9	$269.99	-$191.91	78% 8887-2504 (11391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$317.31	—	-$317.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$144.6	$269.99	+$125.4
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$454.73	$152.27	-$302.46	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$402.19	—	-$402.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$52.54	$152.27	+$99.73
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$298.89	$301.31	+$2.42	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$150.49	$301.31	+$150.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$148.4	—	-$148.4
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$267.25	$254.96	-$12.28	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$79.74	$254.96	+$175.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$187.51	—	-$187.51
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$370.26	$320.1	-$50.15	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$194.48	$320.1	+$125.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$175.77	—	-$175.77
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$316.66	$265.59	-$51.07	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$163.8	$265.59	+$101.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$152.87	—	-$152.87
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$341.09	$203.96	-$133.89	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.9¢	$162.88	$203.96	+$40.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.2¢	$174.22	—	-$174.22
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$34.98	—	-$34.98	75% 22486-7474 (29960)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 19.7¢	$37.64	$133.99	+$96.35	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$75.9	$84.43	+$8.53	59% 18579-12793 (31372)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$44.56	$84.43	+$39.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.8¢	$31.34	—	-$31.34
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 48.2¢	$82.91	$172	+$89.09	69% 41473-18920 (60393)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$66.5	$51.65	-$14.85	81% 51120-11727 (62847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$43.57	—	-$43.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$22.93	$51.65	+$28.72
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$81.7	$59.35	-$22.35	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$36.89	$59.35	+$22.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$44.81	—	-$44.81
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$75.83	$62.61	-$13.22	60% 9317-6132 (15449)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$37.2	$62.61	+$25.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$38.63	—	-$38.63
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 36.4¢	$56.55	$63.25	+$6.7	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$28.17	$63.25	+$35.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$28.38	—	-$28.38
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 11.6¢	$34.91	—	-$34.91	53% 11852-10386 (22238)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 28¢	$31.44	$87.17	+$55.73	62% 18051-11002 (29053)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$88.16	$47.99	-$40.18	56% 11540-9115 (20655)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$30.59	$47.99	+$17.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$57.57	—	-$57.57
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$80.2	—	-$80.2	62% 16871-10447 (27318)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 26.4¢	$35.73	$79.26	+$49.72	61% 13569-8539 (22108)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,261.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$59.43

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

Both legs:

Up$611.150.8¢+$591.05

Down$650.4938.2¢-$650.49

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$902.6

Value

$977.29

PnL

+$74.69

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

Both legs:

Up$626.3264.1¢+$350.97

Down$276.2833.3¢-$276.28

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$813.01

Value

$815.41

PnL

+$2.39

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

Both legs:

Up$425.6852.2¢+$389.73

Down$387.3337.9¢-$387.33

0x50f7

Invested

$43.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

77%

23196-6978 (30174)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$455.8

Value

$465.61

PnL

+$9.81

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

Both legs:

Up$237.150.9¢+$228.51

Down$218.738.2¢-$218.7

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$461.9

Value

$269.99

PnL

-$191.91

Record

78%

8887-2504 (11391)

Both legs:

Down$317.3136.3¢-$317.31

Up$144.653.6¢+$125.4

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$454.73

Value

$152.27

PnL

-$302.46

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

Both legs:

Down$402.1938.4¢-$402.19

Up$52.5434.5¢+$99.73

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$298.89

Value

$301.31

PnL

+$2.42

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

Both legs:

Up$150.4949.9¢+$150.82

Down$148.433.3¢-$148.4

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$267.25

Value

$254.96

PnL

-$12.28

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

Both legs:

Up$79.7431.3¢+$175.23

Down$187.5146.3¢-$187.51

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$370.26

Value

$320.1

PnL

-$50.15

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

Both legs:

Up$194.4860.8¢+$125.62

Down$175.7767.2¢-$175.77

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$316.66

Value

$265.59

PnL

-$51.07

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

Both legs:

Up$163.861.7¢+$101.79

Down$152.8760.2¢-$152.87

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.09

Value

$203.96

PnL

-$133.89

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

Both legs:

Up$162.8879.9¢+$40.33

Down$174.2258.2¢-$174.22

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.98

Value

—

PnL

-$34.98

Record

75%

22486-7474 (29960)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$37.64

Value

$133.99

PnL

+$96.35

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$75.9

Value

$84.43

PnL

+$8.53

Record

59%

18579-12793 (31372)

Both legs:

Up$44.5652.8¢+$39.87

Down$31.3429.8¢-$31.34

Bonereaper

Invested

$82.91

Value

$172

PnL

+$89.09

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$66.5

Value

$51.65

PnL

-$14.85

Record

81%

51120-11727 (62847)

Both legs:

Down$43.5739.5¢-$43.57

Up$22.9344.4¢+$28.72

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.7

Value

$59.35

PnL

-$22.35

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

Both legs:

Up$36.8962.2¢+$22.46

Down$44.8151.3¢-$44.81

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$75.83

Value

$62.61

PnL

-$13.22

Record

60%

9317-6132 (15449)

Both legs:

Up$37.259.4¢+$25.41

Down$38.6348.2¢-$38.63

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$56.55

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$6.7

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

Both legs:

Up$28.1744.5¢+$35.08

Down$28.3836.4¢-$28.38

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.91

Value

—

PnL

-$34.91

Record

53%

11852-10386 (22238)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$31.44

Value

$87.17

PnL

+$55.73

Record

62%

18051-11002 (29053)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.16

Value

$47.99

PnL

-$40.18

Record

56%

11540-9115 (20655)

Both legs:

Up$30.5963.8¢+$17.39

Down$57.5764.3¢-$57.57

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.2

Value

—

PnL

-$80.2

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$35.73

Value

$79.26

PnL

+$49.72

Record

61%

13569-8539 (22108)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x0e7bfdcf...068db4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792915800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.39

0x50f7

Up — $1.1K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.15

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