Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$674.53

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 32 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,023

Combined PnL+$406.58

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,418

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$25.52	78% 10494-2919 (13413)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 81.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$89.15	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.2¢	$813.6	$877.26	+$63.66	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
machinelearned	Downavg 78.2¢	$631.08	$671.55	+$40.47	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 47.9¢	$302.55	$423.58	+$121.03	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
pspspsps5	Downavg 83.1¢	$323.33	$378.67	+$55.34	58% 14506-10295 (24801)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 38.9¢	$171.86	$350.12	+$178.26	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 71¢	$1.1K	$328.87	-$402.13	53% 11852-10386 (22238)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 42.2¢	$147.15	$307.82	+$160.67	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$312.35	$294.94	-$17.41	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$187.9	$294.94	+$107.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.2¢	$124.45	—	-$124.45
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 67.8¢	$237.04	$225.8	-$11.23	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 83.3¢	$181.77	$196.17	+$14.41	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 62.9¢	$169	—	-$169	69% 41473-18920 (60393)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 91.4¢	$194.63	$177.59	-$15	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 61.8¢	$82.46	$131.09	+$48.62	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 65¢	$87.89	—	-$87.89	56% 11571-9121 (20692)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$43	$81.34	+$38.34	60% 9317-6132 (15449)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$41.61	$73.99	+$32.38	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$35.75	$64.92	+$29.17	62% 16871-10447 (27318)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$53.96	$62.43	+$8.46	83% 44804-8899 (53703)
TI tin54321CTR	Upavg 8.2¢	$820	—	-$820	64% 43-24 (67)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$472.29	$21	-$451.29	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$457.17	—	-$457.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$15.12	$21	+$5.88
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$31.37	$49.67	+$18.3	56% 18571-14357 (32928)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$40.99	$47.34	+$6.35	62% 18051-11002 (29053)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$52.58	$60	+$7.42	77% 41364-12330 (53694)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,526.48

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25.52

Record

78%

10494-2919 (13413)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,793.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$89.15

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$813.6

Value

$877.26

PnL

+$63.66

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$631.08

Value

$671.55

PnL

+$40.47

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$302.55

Value

$423.58

PnL

+$121.03

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$323.33

Value

$378.67

PnL

+$55.34

Record

58%

14506-10295 (24801)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$171.86

Value

$350.12

PnL

+$178.26

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$1,098.98

Value

$328.87

PnL

-$402.13

Record

53%

11852-10386 (22238)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$147.15

Value

$307.82

PnL

+$160.67

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$312.35

Value

$294.94

PnL

-$17.41

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

Both legs:

Down$187.963.7¢+$107.05

Up$124.4571.2¢-$124.45

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$237.04

Value

$225.8

PnL

-$11.23

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$181.77

Value

$196.17

PnL

+$14.41

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$169

Value

—

PnL

-$169

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$194.63

Value

$177.59

PnL

-$15

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$82.46

Value

$131.09

PnL

+$48.62

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$87.89

Value

—

PnL

-$87.89

Record

56%

11571-9121 (20692)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$43

Value

$81.34

PnL

+$38.34

Record

60%

9317-6132 (15449)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$41.61

Value

$73.99

PnL

+$32.38

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$35.75

Value

$64.92

PnL

+$29.17

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$53.96

Value

$62.43

PnL

+$8.46

Record

83%

44804-8899 (53703)

tin54321CTR

Invested

$820

Value

—

PnL

-$820

Record

64%

43-24 (67)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$472.29

Value

$21

PnL

-$451.29

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

Both legs:

Up$457.1770.3¢-$457.17

Down$15.1272¢+$5.88

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$31.37

Value

$49.67

PnL

+$18.3

Record

56%

18571-14357 (32928)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$40.99

Value

$47.34

PnL

+$6.35

Record

62%

18051-11002 (29053)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$52.58

Value

$60

PnL

+$7.42

Record

77%

41364-12330 (53694)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 32 top traders (84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x82622c0e...808e60

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792915200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$25.52

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.7K

-$89.15

wzbbb

Down — $877.26

+$63.66

machinelearned

Down — $671.55

+$40.47

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $423.58

+$121.03

pspspsps5

Down — $378.67

+$55.34

GoodFallen

Down — $350.12

+$178.26

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $328.87

-$402.13

FairValueMachine

Down — $307.82

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded