Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$91.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,017

Combined PnL+$443.26

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,366

Combined PnL-$351.35

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$4.61	77% 23196-6978 (30174)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$653.61	$748.64	+$95.03	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.1¢	$614.83	$748.64	+$133.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.1¢	$38.77	—	-$38.77
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 89.3¢	$915.09	$1.0K	+$110	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$243.79	$261.33	+$17.53	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.1¢	$201.45	$261.33	+$59.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.3¢	$42.34	—	-$42.34
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$282.25	$259.96	-$22.29	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$180.32	$259.96	+$79.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$101.92	—	-$101.92
machinelearned	Downavg 75.1¢	$202.35	$262.72	+$60.37	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$191.4	$176	-$15.4	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$126.28	$176	+$49.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$65.12	—	-$65.12
pspspsps5	Downavg 64.8¢	$129.44	$199.76	+$70.32	58% 14506-10295 (24801)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 23.4¢	$118.73	—	-$118.73	51% 764-729 (1493)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$127.79	$146.69	+$18.9	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$94.18	$146.69	+$52.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.8¢	$33.6	—	-$33.6
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 64.3¢	$116.86	$181.6	+$64.75	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 37¢	$117.41	—	-$117.41	57% 1063-797 (1860)
SP spartacray	Downavg 69¢	$90.86	$106.66	+$15.81	56% 18571-14357 (32928)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$25.67	—	-$25.67	53% 11852-10386 (22238)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$74.83	$72.56	-$2.27	56% 11540-9115 (20655)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.5¢	$49.01	$72.56	+$23.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$25.82	—	-$25.82
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 60.8¢	$78.98	$129.97	+$50.99	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 74¢	$69.1	$60	-$9.1	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$55.03	$71.98	+$16.95	62% 16871-10447 (27318)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$61.73	$46.17	-$15.56	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 62¢	$55.67	$89.79	+$34.12	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85.3¢	$47.37	$55.56	+$8.19	75% 22486-7474 (29960)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$43.2	—	-$43.2	63% 9777-5815 (15592)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$40.05	$44.99	+$4.94	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$47.22	$53.98	+$6.76	61% 13569-8539 (22108)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 66¢	$17.34	$17	-$0.34	69% 41473-18920 (60393)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,603.4

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$4.61

Record

77%

23196-6978 (30174)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$653.61

Value

$748.64

PnL

+$95.03

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

Both legs:

Down$614.8382.1¢+$133.8

Up$38.774.1¢-$38.77

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$915.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$110

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$243.79

Value

$261.33

PnL

+$17.53

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

Both legs:

Down$201.4577.1¢+$59.88

Up$42.3413.3¢-$42.34

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$282.25

Value

$259.96

PnL

-$22.29

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

Both legs:

Down$180.3269.4¢+$79.64

Up$101.9236.4¢-$101.92

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$202.35

Value

$262.72

PnL

+$60.37

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.4

Value

$176

PnL

-$15.4

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

Both legs:

Down$126.2871.7¢+$49.72

Up$65.1237¢-$65.12

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$129.44

Value

$199.76

PnL

+$70.32

Record

58%

14506-10295 (24801)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$118.73

Value

—

PnL

-$118.73

Record

51%

764-729 (1493)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.79

Value

$146.69

PnL

+$18.9

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

Both legs:

Down$94.1864.2¢+$52.51

Up$33.631.8¢-$33.6

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$116.86

Value

$181.6

PnL

+$64.75

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$117.41

Value

—

PnL

-$117.41

Record

57%

1063-797 (1860)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$90.86

Value

$106.66

PnL

+$15.81

Record

56%

18571-14357 (32928)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$25.67

Value

—

PnL

-$25.67

Record

53%

11852-10386 (22238)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.83

Value

$72.56

PnL

-$2.27

Record

56%

11540-9115 (20655)

Both legs:

Down$49.0167.5¢+$23.56

Up$25.8230.2¢-$25.82

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$78.98

Value

$129.97

PnL

+$50.99

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$69.1

Value

$60

PnL

-$9.1

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$55.03

Value

$71.98

PnL

+$16.95

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$61.73

Value

$46.17

PnL

-$15.56

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$55.67

Value

$89.79

PnL

+$34.12

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$47.37

Value

$55.56

PnL

+$8.19

Record

75%

22486-7474 (29960)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$43.2

Value

—

PnL

-$43.2

Record

63%

9777-5815 (15592)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$40.05

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$4.94

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$47.22

Value

$53.98

PnL

+$6.76

Record

61%

13569-8539 (22108)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.34

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1c470366...873f3c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792914900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.6K

+$4.61

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$95.03

wzbbb

Down — $1.0K

+$110

thesidehustle

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$22.29

machinelearned

Down — $262.72

+$60.37

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.4

pspspsps5

Down — $199.76

+$70.32

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Up — $0

-$118.73

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.9

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