Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$32.52

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,345

Combined PnL+$244.76

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL-$277.28

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21.19	78% 10494-2919 (13413)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.1¢	$889.75	$963.53	+$73.78	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 75.8¢	$639.93	$516.26	-$123.67	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.6¢	$312.05	$302.3	-$9.75	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 89¢	$235.19	$238.68	+$3.49	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
NIULAI4	Upavg 85.1¢	$200.44	$217.45	+$17.01	78% 8887-2504 (11391)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 76.7¢	$207.32	$216.96	+$9.64	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
UpandDownSyndrome	Upavg 94.7¢	$203.32	$214.63	+$11.31	62% 38229-23726 (61955)
machinelearned	Upavg 85¢	$148.25	$156.19	+$7.94	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 69.3¢	$121.68	$128.11	+$10.33	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 89.1¢	$123.81	$139	+$15.19	93% 20154-1617 (21771)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 76.4¢	$117.72	$154.08	+$36.36	64% 12116-6779 (18895)
ohioism	Upavg 76.4¢	$113.47	$148.54	+$35.07	75% 23276-7607 (30883)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 21.3¢	$146.73	$60	-$86.73	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$44.4	$60	+$15.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.3¢	$102.33	—	-$102.33
SP spartacray	Upavg 75.7¢	$97.61	$124.9	+$27.29	56% 18571-14357 (32928)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Upavg 81¢	$92.64	$95.99	+$3.36	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 56.9¢	$81.92	$104.32	+$22.4	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$76	$94.65	+$18.66	56% 11540-9115 (20655)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 58¢	$67.86	$117	+$49.14	69% 41473-18920 (60393)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$51.13	$54.99	+$3.86	62% 16871-10447 (27318)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 18.1¢	$111.35	—	-$111.35	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$58.4	$48	-$10.4	68% 33599-15456 (49055)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 29.1¢	$49.1	—	-$49.1	56% 31413-24251 (55664)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$46.3	$60	+$13.7	58% 6469-4604 (11073)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$39.05	$37.31	-$1.74	86% 39944-6718 (46662)

THG.

Invested

$2,097.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$21.19

Record

78%

10494-2919 (13413)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$889.75

Value

$963.53

PnL

+$73.78

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$639.93

Value

$516.26

PnL

-$123.67

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

GoodFallen

Invested

$312.05

Value

$302.3

PnL

-$9.75

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$235.19

Value

$238.68

PnL

+$3.49

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

NIULAI4

Invested

$200.44

Value

$217.45

PnL

+$17.01

Record

78%

8887-2504 (11391)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$207.32

Value

$216.96

PnL

+$9.64

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

UpandDownSyndrome

Invested

$203.32

Value

$214.63

PnL

+$11.31

Record

62%

38229-23726 (61955)

machinelearned

Invested

$148.25

Value

$156.19

PnL

+$7.94

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$121.68

Value

$128.11

PnL

+$10.33

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

hoodquant

Invested

$123.81

Value

$139

PnL

+$15.19

Record

93%

20154-1617 (21771)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$117.72

Value

$154.08

PnL

+$36.36

Record

64%

12116-6779 (18895)

ohioism

Invested

$113.47

Value

$148.54

PnL

+$35.07

Record

75%

23276-7607 (30883)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.73

Value

$60

PnL

-$86.73

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

Both legs:

Up$44.474¢+$15.6

Down$102.3321.3¢-$102.33

spartacray

Invested

$97.61

Value

$124.9

PnL

+$27.29

Record

56%

18571-14357 (32928)

thesidehustle<$100

Invested

$92.64

Value

$95.99

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$81.92

Value

$104.32

PnL

+$22.4

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$94.65

PnL

+$18.66

Record

56%

11540-9115 (20655)

Bonereaper

Invested

$67.86

Value

$117

PnL

+$49.14

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$51.13

Value

$54.99

PnL

+$3.86

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$111.35

Value

—

PnL

-$111.35

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Invested

$58.4

Value

$48

PnL

-$10.4

Record

68%

33599-15456 (49055)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.1

Value

—

PnL

-$49.1

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$46.3

Value

$60

PnL

+$13.7

Record

58%

6469-4604 (11073)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$39.05

Value

$37.31

PnL

-$1.74

Record

86%

39944-6718 (46662)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x066494d3...5129c8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792914600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.1K

+$21.19

CrouchPredictions

Up — $963.53

+$73.78

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $516.26

-$123.67

GoodFallen

Up — $302.3

-$9.75

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $238.68

+$3.49

NIULAI4

Up — $217.45

+$17.01

EZTRADENL2

Up — $216.96

+$9.64

UpandDownSyndrome

Up — $214.63

+$11.31

machinelearned

Up — $156.19

+$7.94

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $128.11

+$10.33

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