Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$978.82

Smart Money Signal

10 of 24 top traders (42%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,644

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$746.82

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI tin54321CTR	Upavg 52.8¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	64% 43-24 (67)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$524.5	$579.65	+$55.15	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.9¢	$184.37	—	-$184.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.7¢	$340.12	$579.65	+$239.52
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$553.89	$368.54	-$185.35	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$321.97	—	-$321.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$231.92	$368.54	+$136.61
TE Telawin	Downavg 58.3¢	$500	$857.78	+$357.78	51% 306-298 (604)
machinelearned	Downavg 54.4¢	$123.95	$127.56	+$3.61	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$231.71	$266.43	+$34.72	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.1¢	$197.32	$266.43	+$69.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$34.39	—	-$34.39
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$160.21	$162.2	+$1.99	68% 33599-15456 (49055)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.4¢	$55.45	—	-$55.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$104.76	$162.2	+$57.44
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 44.9¢	$180.5	$124	-$56.49	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.9¢	$101.82	—	-$101.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$78.67	$124	+$45.33
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 89¢	$203.44	$198.95	-$4.49	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$177.04	$198.95	+$21.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 20¢	$26.4	—	-$26.4
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 10.7¢	$40.83	—	-$40.83	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 57.7¢	$159.13	$275.92	+$116.78	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 50.5¢	$151.5	$275.69	+$145.34	53% 11852-10386 (22238)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$134.32	$110.05	-$24.27	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$58.45	—	-$58.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$75.87	$110.05	+$34.18
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$121.39	$119.49	-$1.9	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$43.8	—	-$43.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.9¢	$77.59	$119.49	+$41.9
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$83.78	$56.11	-$27.67	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$60.69	—	-$60.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$23.09	$56.11	+$33.02
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.4¢	$17.25	—	-$17.25	58% 14506-10295 (24801)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$91.87	$109.2	+$17.34	56% 11540-9115 (20655)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.8¢	$70.8	$109.2	+$38.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$21.07	—	-$21.07
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 51.6¢	$87.87	$144.06	+$56.19	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$112.27	$105.22	-$6.45	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.4¢	$88.77	$105.22	+$16.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$21.66	—	-$22.9
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$55.52	$54.43	-$1.1	86% 39944-6718 (46662)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$25.43	—	-$25.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.3¢	$30.09	$54.43	+$24.33
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 28.2¢	$45.05	—	-$45.05	56% 18571-14357 (32928)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$49.34	—	-$49.34	56% 31413-24251 (55664)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$77.51	$80.83	+$3.32	77% 41364-12330 (53694)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$42.72	$60.14	+$17.42	67% 23185-11428 (34613)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$24.67	—	-$24.67	62% 16871-10447 (27318)

tin54321CTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

64%

43-24 (67)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.5

Value

$579.65

PnL

+$55.15

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

Both legs:

Up$184.3718.9¢-$184.37

Down$340.1258.7¢+$239.52

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$553.89

Value

$368.54

PnL

-$185.35

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

Both legs:

Up$321.9742.2¢-$321.97

Down$231.9262.9¢+$136.61

Telawin

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$857.78

PnL

+$357.78

Record

51%

306-298 (604)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$123.95

Value

$127.56

PnL

+$3.61

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.71

Value

$266.43

PnL

+$34.72

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

Both legs:

Down$197.3274.1¢+$69.11

Up$34.3930.4¢-$34.39

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.21

Value

$162.2

PnL

+$1.99

Record

68%

33599-15456 (49055)

Both legs:

Up$55.4528.4¢-$55.45

Down$104.7664.6¢+$57.44

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$180.5

Value

$124

PnL

-$56.49

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

Both legs:

Up$101.8244.9¢-$101.82

Down$78.6763.4¢+$45.33

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.44

Value

$198.95

PnL

-$4.49

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

Both legs:

Down$177.0489¢+$21.91

Up$26.420¢-$26.4

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$40.83

Value

—

PnL

-$40.83

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$159.13

Value

$275.92

PnL

+$116.78

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$151.5

Value

$275.69

PnL

+$145.34

Record

53%

11852-10386 (22238)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.32

Value

$110.05

PnL

-$24.27

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

Both legs:

Up$58.4543.3¢-$58.45

Down$75.8768.9¢+$34.18

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.39

Value

$119.49

PnL

-$1.9

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

Both legs:

Up$43.836.4¢-$43.8

Down$77.5964.9¢+$41.9

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$83.78

Value

$56.11

PnL

-$27.67

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

Both legs:

Up$60.6935.7¢-$60.69

Down$23.0941.2¢+$33.02

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$17.25

Value

—

PnL

-$17.25

Record

58%

14506-10295 (24801)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.87

Value

$109.2

PnL

+$17.34

Record

56%

11540-9115 (20655)

Both legs:

Down$70.864.8¢+$38.41

Up$21.0729.7¢-$21.07

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$87.87

Value

$144.06

PnL

+$56.19

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$112.27

Value

$105.22

PnL

-$6.45

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

Both legs:

Down$88.7784.4¢+$16.45

Up$21.6636.8¢-$22.9

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$55.52

Value

$54.43

PnL

-$1.1

Record

86%

39944-6718 (46662)

Both legs:

Up$25.4332.8¢-$25.43

Down$30.0955.3¢+$24.33

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$45.05

Value

—

PnL

-$45.05

Record

56%

18571-14357 (32928)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$49.34

Value

—

PnL

-$49.34

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$77.51

Value

$80.83

PnL

+$3.32

Record

77%

41364-12330 (53694)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$42.72

Value

$60.14

PnL

+$17.42

Record

67%

23185-11428 (34613)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$24.67

Value

—

PnL

-$24.67

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 24 top traders (42%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x560650be...9982e0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792914300

Traders in this Market

tin54321

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$185.35

Telawin

Down — $857.78

+$357.78

machinelearned

Down — $127.56

+$3.61

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$34.72

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0