Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,180

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,463

Combined PnL+$411.04

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$965.08	—	-$965.08	56% 14421-11212 (25633)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 66.1¢	$508.52	—	-$508.52	56% 7517-5902 (13419)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$559.46	$454.15	-$105.32	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.4¢	$137.9	$454.15	+$316.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$421.56	—	-$421.56
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 38.6¢	$323.73	$389.33	+$65.6	58% 12724-9105 (21829)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$146.09	$389.33	+$243.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$177.64	—	-$177.64
NIULAI4	Downavg 90.5¢	$360.85	$329.23	-$31.62	78% 8887-2504 (11391)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$439.36	$294.08	-$145.28	55% 6634-5438 (12072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$115.16	$294.08	+$178.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$324.21	—	-$324.21
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$293.71	$296.98	+$3.27	57% 11081-8411 (19492)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$113.88	$296.98	+$183.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$179.83	—	-$179.83
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 56.1¢	$190.53	$332.47	+$143.83	61% 11419-7428 (18847)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 60¢	$242.78	—	-$242.78	68% 33599-15456 (49055)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 28.6¢	$141.78	$253.35	+$111.57	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 76¢	$194.12	—	-$194.12	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 74¢	$237.95	$130.28	-$107.67	57% 10057-7467 (17524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36¢	$46.9	$130.28	+$83.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$191.05	—	-$191.05
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 59.3¢	$132.2	—	-$132.2	86% 39944-6718 (46662)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 77¢	$117.97	—	-$117.97	62% 16871-10447 (27318)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Upavg 77.8¢	$180.44	—	-$180.44	56% 11540-9115 (20655)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 30.9¢	$80.23	$141.83	+$61.6	59% 14166-9784 (23950)
SP spartacrayCTR	Upavg 79.3¢	$120.8	—	-$120.8	56% 18571-14357 (32928)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$77.49	$88.76	+$11.27	65% 14875-7928 (22803)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$76.8	—	-$76.8	63% 9777-5815 (15592)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$54.45	$63.03	+$8.58	59% 18579-12793 (31372)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 23.8¢	$71.22	—	-$71.22	81% 51120-11727 (62847)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 24¢	$17.62	$65.31	+$47.69	58% 14506-10295 (24801)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$87.76	$31	-$56.76	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$8.68	$31	+$22.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.7¢	$79.08	—	-$79.08
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$44.09	$59.93	+$15.84	77% 41364-12330 (53694)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 39¢	$43.84	$56.41	+$12.57	56% 31413-24251 (55664)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$965.08

Value

—

PnL

-$965.08

Record

56%

14421-11212 (25633)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$508.52

Value

—

PnL

-$508.52

Record

56%

7517-5902 (13419)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$559.46

Value

$454.15

PnL

-$105.32

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

Both legs:

Down$137.930.4¢+$316.24

Up$421.5654.6¢-$421.56

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$323.73

Value

$389.33

PnL

+$65.6

Record

58%

12724-9105 (21829)

Both legs:

Down$146.0937.5¢+$243.24

Up$177.6438.6¢-$177.64

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$360.85

Value

$329.23

PnL

-$31.62

Record

78%

8887-2504 (11391)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$439.36

Value

$294.08

PnL

-$145.28

Record

55%

6634-5438 (12072)

Both legs:

Down$115.1639.2¢+$178.93

Up$324.2173.4¢-$324.21

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$293.71

Value

$296.98

PnL

+$3.27

Record

57%

11081-8411 (19492)

Both legs:

Down$113.8838.3¢+$183.1

Up$179.8354.9¢-$179.83

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$190.53

Value

$332.47

PnL

+$143.83

Record

61%

11419-7428 (18847)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$242.78

Value

—

PnL

-$242.78

Record

68%

33599-15456 (49055)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$141.78

Value

$253.35

PnL

+$111.57

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$194.12

Value

—

PnL

-$194.12

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$237.95

Value

$130.28

PnL

-$107.67

Record

57%

10057-7467 (17524)

Both legs:

Down$46.936¢+$83.38

Up$191.0574¢-$191.05

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$132.2

Value

—

PnL

-$132.2

Record

86%

39944-6718 (46662)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$117.97

Value

—

PnL

-$117.97

Record

62%

16871-10447 (27318)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Invested

$180.44

Value

—

PnL

-$180.44

Record

56%

11540-9115 (20655)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$80.23

Value

$141.83

PnL

+$61.6

Record

59%

14166-9784 (23950)

spartacrayCTR

Invested

$120.8

Value

—

PnL

-$120.8

Record

56%

18571-14357 (32928)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$77.49

Value

$88.76

PnL

+$11.27

Record

65%

14875-7928 (22803)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$76.8

Value

—

PnL

-$76.8

Record

63%

9777-5815 (15592)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$54.45

Value

$63.03

PnL

+$8.58

Record

59%

18579-12793 (31372)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$71.22

Value

—

PnL

-$71.22

Record

81%

51120-11727 (62847)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$17.62

Value

$65.31

PnL

+$47.69

Record

58%

14506-10295 (24801)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$87.76

Value

$31

PnL

-$56.76

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.09

Value

$59.93

PnL

+$15.84

Record

77%

41364-12330 (53694)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$43.84

Value

$56.41

PnL

+$12.57

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb9fbe8c7...02f636

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792913100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

machinelearned

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Down — $329.23

-$31.62

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $332.47

+$143.83

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

CTR

Up — $0

-$242.78

wzbbb

Down — $253.35

+$111.57

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