Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.6K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,114

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,818

Combined PnL+$917.42

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 61.5¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	56% 13395-10454 (23849)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 62.5¢	$795.39	—	-$795.39	56% 14413-11208 (25621)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 76.9¢	$799.33	—	-$799.33	56% 6781-5284 (12065)
NIULAI4	Downavg 44.6¢	$139.76	$178.18	+$38.42	78% 8873-2498 (11371)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 56.3¢	$406.96	—	-$406.96	58% 12717-9100 (21817)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 55.3¢	$333.64	—	-$333.64	57% 11074-8405 (19479)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 58.2¢	$351	—	-$351	56% 7510-5895 (13405)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 46.7¢	$274.95	—	-$274.95	55% 6625-5433 (12058)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$285.99	$183.89	-$102.11	70% 19524-8264 (27788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$189.07	—	-$189.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$96.93	$183.89	+$86.96
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 45.6¢	$268.58	$365.32	+$98.09	61% 11411-7422 (18833)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 74.4¢	$198.82	—	-$198.82	58% 9968-7337 (17305)
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 58.4¢	$190.1	—	-$190.1	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 4.4¢	$23.98	$542.76	+$518.78	76% 22662-6966 (29628)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Upavg 91¢	$200	—	-$200	49% 73-77 (150)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 59¢	$177	—	-$177	53% 11694-10270 (21964)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR	Upavg 74.6¢	$132.22	—	-$132.22	56% 11534-9107 (20641)
SP spartacrayCTR	Upavg 76.5¢	$119.05	—	-$119.05	56% 18564-14350 (32914)
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$105.91	$136.44	+$30.53	67% 22683-11363 (34046)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$65.33	$136.44	+$71.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$40.58	—	-$40.58
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 77.6¢	$100.88	—	-$100.88	62% 16862-10442 (27304)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 33.1¢	$84.2	$138.77	+$54.58	81% 50447-11707 (62154)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 41.7¢	$107.65	$138.01	+$30.37	65% 14864-7917 (22781)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 43.6¢	$61.05	$140	+$78.95	68% 40782-18893 (59675)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$63.9	—	-$47.13	77% 40726-12316 (53042)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$45.8	—	-$45.8	58% 6421-4582 (11003)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 81¢	$33.67	—	-$33.67	62% 38200-23710 (61910)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,256.51

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

13395-10454 (23849)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$795.39

Value

—

PnL

-$795.39

Record

56%

14413-11208 (25621)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$799.33

Value

—

PnL

-$799.33

Record

56%

6781-5284 (12065)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$139.76

Value

$178.18

PnL

+$38.42

Record

78%

8873-2498 (11371)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$406.96

Value

—

PnL

-$406.96

Record

58%

12717-9100 (21817)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$333.64

Value

—

PnL

-$333.64

Record

57%

11074-8405 (19479)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$351

Value

—

PnL

-$351

Record

56%

7510-5895 (13405)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$274.95

Value

—

PnL

-$274.95

Record

55%

6625-5433 (12058)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$285.99

Value

$183.89

PnL

-$102.11

Record

70%

19524-8264 (27788)

Both legs:

Up$189.0760.6¢-$189.07

Down$96.9352.7¢+$86.96

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$268.58

Value

$365.32

PnL

+$98.09

Record

61%

11411-7422 (18833)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$198.82

Value

—

PnL

-$198.82

Record

58%

9968-7337 (17305)

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$190.1

Value

—

PnL

-$190.1

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$23.98

Value

$542.76

PnL

+$518.78

Record

76%

22662-6966 (29628)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

-$200

Record

49%

73-77 (150)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$177

Value

—

PnL

-$177

Record

53%

11694-10270 (21964)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR

Invested

$132.22

Value

—

PnL

-$132.22

Record

56%

11534-9107 (20641)

spartacrayCTR

Invested

$119.05

Value

—

PnL

-$119.05

Record

56%

18564-14350 (32914)

PBot-6ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.91

Value

$136.44

PnL

+$30.53

Record

67%

22683-11363 (34046)

Both legs:

Down$65.3347.9¢+$71.11

Up$40.5851.1¢-$40.58

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$100.88

Value

—

PnL

-$100.88

Record

62%

16862-10442 (27304)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$84.2

Value

$138.77

PnL

+$54.58

Record

81%

50447-11707 (62154)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$107.65

Value

$138.01

PnL

+$30.37

Record

65%

14864-7917 (22781)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$61.05

Value

$140

PnL

+$78.95

Record

68%

40782-18893 (59675)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$63.9

Value

—

PnL

-$47.13

Record

77%

40726-12316 (53042)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

—

PnL

-$45.8

Record

58%

6421-4582 (11003)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$33.67

Value

—

PnL

-$33.67

Record

62%

38200-23710 (61910)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 33 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x99caef1c...b6a204

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792910400

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.3K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

wzbbb

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Down — $178.18

GoodFallen

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

machinelearned

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Up — $0

-$274.95

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$102.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $365.32

+$98.09

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