Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$85.46

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,476

Combined PnL+$227.2

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares475

Combined PnL-$141.75

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 32.7¢	$679.45	$490.38	-$189.06	56% 14413-11208 (25621)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$340.23	—	-$340.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$339.22	$490.38	+$151.16
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 70.7¢	$555.34	$509.42	-$45.92	56% 13395-10454 (23849)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.8¢	$485.24	$548.98	+$63.74	56% 6781-5284 (12065)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 80.6¢	$356.12	$352.87	-$3.25	49% 4563-4680 (9243)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$333.38	$276.37	-$57.01	58% 12717-9100 (21817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$191.78	$276.37	+$84.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$141.6	—	-$141.6
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$270.1	$275.61	+$5.51	93% 20126-1616 (21742)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$194.07	$201.24	+$7.17	57% 11074-8405 (19479)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$130.89	$201.24	+$70.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$63.18	—	-$63.18
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 60.3¢	$246.76	$409.18	+$162.42	70% 19524-8264 (27788)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 76.6¢	$174.16	$167.3	-$6.86	55% 6625-5433 (12058)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.6¢	$128.08	$167.3	+$39.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$46.08	—	-$46.08
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$160.43	$100	-$60.43	56% 7510-5895 (13405)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$85.43	—	-$85.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$75	$100	+$25
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 67.9¢	$116.23	$132.82	+$16.59	58% 9968-7337 (17305)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.9¢	$90.23	$132.82	+$42.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$25.99	—	-$25.99
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$96.17	$97.14	+$0.97	62% 38200-23710 (61910)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$104.42	$99	-$5.42	61% 11411-7422 (18833)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.2¢	$78.38	$99	+$20.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.1¢	$26.04	—	-$26.04
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$84.77	$79.16	-$5.6	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.3¢	$63.6	$79.16	+$15.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.5¢	$21.17	—	-$21.17
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$60.32	$70.69	+$10.37	65% 14864-7917 (22781)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$47.35	$70.69	+$23.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$12.97	—	-$12.97
TH THG.<$100	Downavg 99¢	$51.12	$51.64	+$0.52	78% 10371-2913 (13284)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 29.4¢	$40.5	—	-$40.5	56% 11534-9107 (20641)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 22.4¢	$32.34	—	-$32.34	59% 14095-9766 (23861)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 8.9¢	$9.44	—	-$9.44	58% 14482-10278 (24760)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Downavg 96¢	$53.35	$55.57	+$2.22	47% 318-362 (680)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$22.39	—	-$22.39	58% 15969-11565 (27534)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97.6¢	$47.31	$48.49	+$1.18	75% 22399-7453 (29852)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 66¢	$39.6	$60	+$20.4	77% 40726-12316 (53042)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$24.5	—	-$24.5	62% 16862-10442 (27304)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$29.92	$33.62	+$3.7	56% 18564-14350 (32914)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$679.45

Value

$490.38

PnL

-$189.06

Record

56%

14413-11208 (25621)

Both legs:

Up$340.2332.7¢-$340.23

Down$339.2269.2¢+$151.16

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$555.34

Value

$509.42

PnL

-$45.92

Record

56%

13395-10454 (23849)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$485.24

Value

$548.98

PnL

+$63.74

Record

56%

6781-5284 (12065)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$356.12

Value

$352.87

PnL

-$3.25

Record

49%

4563-4680 (9243)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$333.38

Value

$276.37

PnL

-$57.01

Record

58%

12717-9100 (21817)

Both legs:

Down$191.7869.4¢+$84.59

Up$141.631.9¢-$141.6

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$270.1

Value

$275.61

PnL

+$5.51

Record

93%

20126-1616 (21742)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$194.07

Value

$201.24

PnL

+$7.17

Record

57%

11074-8405 (19479)

Both legs:

Down$130.8965¢+$70.35

Up$63.1830.2¢-$63.18

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$246.76

Value

$409.18

PnL

+$162.42

Record

70%

19524-8264 (27788)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.16

Value

$167.3

PnL

-$6.86

Record

55%

6625-5433 (12058)

Both legs:

Down$128.0876.6¢+$39.22

Up$46.0826¢-$46.08

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$160.43

Value

$100

PnL

-$60.43

Record

56%

7510-5895 (13405)

Both legs:

Invested

$116.23

Value

$132.82

PnL

+$16.59

Record

58%

9968-7337 (17305)

Both legs:

Down$90.2367.9¢+$42.58

Up$25.9932.5¢-$25.99

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$96.17

Value

$97.14

PnL

+$0.97

Record

62%

38200-23710 (61910)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.42

Value

$99

PnL

-$5.42

Record

61%

11411-7422 (18833)

Both legs:

Down$78.3879.2¢+$20.62

Up$26.0430.1¢-$26.04

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.77

Value

$79.16

PnL

-$5.6

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

Both legs:

Down$63.680.3¢+$15.57

Up$21.1719.5¢-$21.17

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$60.32

Value

$70.69

PnL

+$10.37

Record

65%

14864-7917 (22781)

Both legs:

Invested

$51.12

Value

$51.64

PnL

+$0.52

Record

78%

10371-2913 (13284)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

—

PnL

-$40.5

Record

56%

11534-9107 (20641)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$32.34

Value

—

PnL

-$32.34

Record

59%

14095-9766 (23861)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$9.44

Value

—

PnL

-$9.44

Record

58%

14482-10278 (24760)

seeeeeeb<$100

Down

Invested

$53.35

Value

$55.57

PnL

+$2.22

Record

47%

318-362 (680)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$22.39

Value

—

PnL

-$22.39

Record

58%

15969-11565 (27534)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$47.31

Value

$48.49

PnL

+$1.18

Record

75%

22399-7453 (29852)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.4

Record

77%

40726-12316 (53042)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

—

PnL

-$24.5

Record

62%

16862-10442 (27304)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$29.92

Value

$33.62

PnL

+$3.7

Record

56%

18564-14350 (32914)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x265b180c...8d0f94

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792909800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$189.06

CrouchPredictions

Down — $509.42

-$45.92

wzbbb

Down — $548.98

+$63.74

ply-pm0

Down — $352.87

-$3.25

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$57.01

hoodquant

Down — $275.61

+$5.51

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $409.18

+$162.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded