Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 54¢ · $7K held · ended Aug 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
2
Up 100%
$6.7K
$-4.8K
38.7¢ → 54.5¢
+41% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CE CentralCasting | Upavg 39.7¢ | $4.5K | $6.2K | $-4.5K | 58% 50-36 (86) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 27.5¢ | $273.22 | $541.41 | -$273.21 | 50% 54036-54218 (108254) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.