Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Down
1
Down 100%
2 arb excluded
$3.7K
$198.38
Research grade
NeutralDown at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $3.9K | $3.1K | -$792.64 | 68% 98262-46552 (144814) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.5¢ | $1.8K | $2.5K | +$621.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.1¢ | $2.0K | $635.46 | $-1.4K | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 42.8¢ | $230.83 | $429.21 | +$198.38 | 66% 98231-50697 (148928) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $159.85 | $210 | +$50.15 | 55% 49742-40383 (90125) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.1¢ | $67.43 | $166.95 | +$99.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44¢ | $92.4 | $43.05 | -$49.35 |
Invested
$3,897.35
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$792.64
Record
68%
98262-46552 (144814)
Both legs:
Invested
$230.83
Value
$429.21
PnL
+$198.38
Record
66%
98231-50697 (148928)
Invested
$159.85
Value
$210
PnL
+$50.15
Record
55%
49742-40383 (90125)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.