Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27

Up50¢Down50¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$71.91

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 50.5¢

-10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up50%

Down51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$930.16

Total Shares1,545

Combined PnL+$57.32

Up1 trader

Total Value$299.16

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$14.59

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 53.3¢	$336.19	$416.46	+$80.27	69% 94938-43296 (138234)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$489.68	$326.1	-$163.58	56% 2425-1891 (4316)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.2¢	$203.1	$202.61	-$0.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$286.58	$123.5	-$163.09
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 63.9¢	$284.57	$299.16	+$14.59	66% 97323-49861 (147184)
MO mo-money	Downavg 56.9¢	$186.55	$216.24	+$29.69	55% 48664-39554 (88218)
BO bosona	Downavg 60¢	$250.63	$210.76	-$39.87	56% 47800-38289 (86089)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$99.48	$86.7	-$12.78	55% 46769-38466 (85235)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$336.19

Value

$416.46

PnL

+$80.27

Record

69%

94938-43296 (138234)

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$489.68

Value

$326.1

PnL

-$163.58

Record

56%

2425-1891 (4316)

Both legs:

Up$203.175.2¢-$0.49

Down$286.5858¢-$163.09

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$284.57

Value

$299.16

PnL

+$14.59

Record

66%

97323-49861 (147184)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$186.55

Value

$216.24

PnL

+$29.69

Record

55%

48664-39554 (88218)

bosona

Down

Invested

$250.63

Value

$210.76

PnL

-$39.87

Record

56%

47800-38289 (86089)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$99.48

Value

$86.7

PnL

-$12.78

Record

55%

46769-38466 (85235)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.