Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 100%
3 arb excluded
$5.4K
-$224.86
65.3¢ → 93¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $3.9K | $3.2K | -$752.11 | 69% 93592-42055 (135647) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.2¢ | $2.3K | $1.6K | -$666.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$85.99 | |
 justdance | Downavg 62¢ | $899.73 | $689.81 | -$209.92 | 51% 2457-2391 (4848) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $381.67 | $418.47 | +$36.8 | 56% 2408-1883 (4291) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $461.75 | $336.8 | -$124.95 | 56% 47445-37975 (85420) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $308 | $192 | -$116 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $153.74 | $144.8 | -$8.95 | |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $333.99 | $311.98 | -$22.01 | 76% 70725-22108 (92833) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.7¢ | $239.81 | $238.71 | -$1.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.3¢ | $94.18 | $73.27 | -$20.91 | |
AL almach | Downavg 54¢ | $557.17 | $276 | +$34.75 | 55% 46459-38166 (84625) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 74¢ | $246.16 | $159.67 | -$86.49 | 55% 48280-39244 (87524) |
Invested
$3,931.76
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$752.11
Record
69%
93592-42055 (135647)
Both legs:
justdanceInvested
$899.73
Value
$689.81
PnL
-$209.92
Record
51%
2457-2391 (4848)
Invested
$381.67
Value
$418.47
PnL
+$36.8
Record
56%
2408-1883 (4291)
Invested
$461.75
Value
$336.8
PnL
-$124.95
Record
56%
47445-37975 (85420)
Both legs:
Invested
$333.99
Value
$311.98
PnL
-$22.01
Record
76%
70725-22108 (92833)
Both legs:
Invested
$557.17
Value
$276
PnL
+$34.75
Record
55%
46459-38166 (84625)
Invested
$246.16
Value
$159.67
PnL
-$86.49
Record
55%
48280-39244 (87524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.