Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$467.56

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 96¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,080

Combined PnL+$467.56

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.5¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$460.8	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 80.5¢	$136.18	$133.48	-$2.7	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 46¢	$85.19	$92.59	+$7.41	55% 43401-35098 (78499)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 48¢	$40.3	$41.98	+$1.68	55% 40843-33937 (74780)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.16	$1.53	+$0.37	56% 41723-33053 (74776)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,974.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$460.8

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$136.18

Value

$133.48

PnL

-$2.7

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$85.19

Value

$92.59

PnL

+$7.41

Record

55%

43401-35098 (78499)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$40.3

Value

$41.98

PnL

+$1.68

Record

55%

40843-33937 (74780)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

41723-33053 (74776)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.