Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Up74¢Down26¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 100%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$9.88

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 74¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up74%

Down26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,417

Combined PnL-$9.88

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpDown 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 78.4¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$145.4	87% 47582-6858 (54440)
AL almach	Upavg 68¢	$234.65	$278	+$42.15	55% 38143-31228 (69371)
BO bosona	Upavg 54.9¢	$219.64	$268	+$48.36	56% 39349-30597 (69946)
MO mo-money	Upavg 67.9¢	$484.97	$103.97	+$0.56	56% 41323-32809 (74132)
DU Dubaiitaly<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$63.03	$84.66	+$21.63	50% 139-139 (278)
justdance<$100	Upavg 38¢	$13.26	$35.53	+$22.27	50% 1264-1279 (2543)
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 68¢	$2.8	$3.35	+$0.55	56% 2044-1603 (3647)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,360.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$145.4

Record

87%

47582-6858 (54440)

almach

Invested

$234.65

Value

$278

PnL

+$42.15

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

bosona

Invested

$219.64

Value

$268

PnL

+$48.36

Record

56%

39349-30597 (69946)

mo-money

Invested

$484.97

Value

$103.97

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

41323-32809 (74132)

Dubaiitaly<$100

Invested

$63.03

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$21.63

Record

50%

139-139 (278)

justdance<$100

Invested

$13.26

Value

$35.53

PnL

+$22.27

Record

50%

1264-1279 (2543)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpDown 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.3%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.