Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$2.1K
$168.47
65.3¢ → 84.5¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $830.1 | $935.06 | +$104.97 | 87% 47232-6820 (54052) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 74¢ | $358.6 | $361.03 | +$2.42 | 56% 41132-32523 (73655) |
BO bosona | Downavg 64.7¢ | $275 | $316.5 | +$41.51 | 56% 39158-30351 (69509) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.3¢ | $279.22 | $313.82 | +$34.6 | 55% 37933-30965 (68898) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $203.53 | $188.51 | -$15.03 | 56% 2027-1581 (3608) |
Invested
$830.1
Value
$935.06
PnL
+$104.97
Record
87%
47232-6820 (54052)
Invested
$358.6
Value
$361.03
PnL
+$2.42
Record
56%
41132-32523 (73655)
Invested
$275
Value
$316.5
PnL
+$41.51
Record
56%
39158-30351 (69509)
Invested
$279.22
Value
$313.82
PnL
+$34.6
Record
55%
37933-30965 (68898)
Invested
$203.53
Value
$188.51
PnL
-$15.03
Record
56%
2027-1581 (3608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.