Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$422.03

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 97.4¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL+$439.19

Up1 trader

Total Value$5.72

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$17.16

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.9¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$309.5	86% 42207-6788 (48995)
AL almach	Downavg 77.2¢	$326.68	$400.07	+$73.39	55% 37623-30630 (68253)
BO bosona	Downavg 81¢	$68.64	$355.28	+$21.8	56% 38843-30065 (68908)
MO mo-money	Downavg 85.1¢	$322.39	$304.66	+$30.18	56% 40851-32181 (73032)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$10.6	$14.93	+$4.33	56% 2025-1580 (3605)
justdanceCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$22.88	$5.72	-$17.16	50% 1194-1207 (2401)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,045.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$309.5

Record

86%

42207-6788 (48995)

almach

Down

Invested

$326.68

Value

$400.07

PnL

+$73.39

Record

55%

37623-30630 (68253)

bosona

Down

Invested

$68.64

Value

$355.28

PnL

+$21.8

Record

56%

38843-30065 (68908)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$322.39

Value

$304.66

PnL

+$30.18

Record

56%

40851-32181 (73032)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$10.6

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$4.33

Record

56%

2025-1580 (3605)

justdanceCTR<$100

Invested

$22.88

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$17.16

Record

50%

1194-1207 (2401)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDown 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.