Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

Up8¢Down92¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$167.59

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 92¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up8%

Down92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,011

Combined PnL-$167.59

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$13.13	85% 39312-6718 (46030)
MO mo-money	Downavg 67.5¢	$740.84	$663.14	-$79.47	57% 35984-27141 (63125)
AN Anon455	Downavg 73.3¢	$640.9	$522.17	-$120.25	56% 1911-1514 (3425)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 68¢	$272.41	$219.68	-$52.73	57% 34246-25643 (59889)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$123	$170.25	+$47.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$149.39	$49.43	-$99.96
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$242.65	$155.54	-$25.87	56% 33380-26146 (59526)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$87.1	$118.99	+$31.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$94.31	$36.55	-$57.76
justdance<$100	Downavg 30¢	$40	$31	+$19	49% 1089-1123 (2212)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,536.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$13.13

Record

85%

39312-6718 (46030)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$740.84

Value

$663.14

PnL

-$79.47

Record

57%

35984-27141 (63125)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$640.9

Value

$522.17

PnL

-$120.25

Record

56%

1911-1514 (3425)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$272.41

Value

$219.68

PnL

-$52.73

Record

57%

34246-25643 (59889)

Both legs:

Down$12356¢+$47.23

Up$149.3968¢-$99.96

almachARB<$100

Invested

$242.65

Value

$155.54

PnL

-$25.87

Record

56%

33380-26146 (59526)

Both legs:

Invested

$40

Value

$31

PnL

+$19

Record

49%

1089-1123 (2212)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.