Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$166.99

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,215

Combined PnL+$224

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$57.01

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.08	74% 101844-36246 (138090)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$953.42	$763.39	-$190.03	73% 94943-35571 (130514)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$477.46	—	-$477.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$475.96	$763.39	+$287.43
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$894.3	$845.15	-$49.16	57% 9927-7438 (17365)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$461.52	—	-$461.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.2¢	$432.78	$845.15	+$412.37
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 41.3¢	$179.93	$310.19	+$130.26	54% 15056-12962 (28018)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$127.96	$310.19	+$182.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$51.97	—	-$51.97
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$221.78	$180	-$41.78	64% 57137-31956 (89093)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$113.58	—	-$113.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$108.2	$180	+$71.8
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 34.7¢	$119.76	$257.97	+$138.21	56% 13780-10787 (24567)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$89.46	$257.97	+$168.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$30.3	—	-$30.3
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$297	$300	+$3	93% 22018-1702 (23720)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$138.29	$150.86	+$12.57	57% 6448-4784 (11232)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$82.86	$150.86	+$68
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$55.43	—	-$55.43
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$120.96	$96.77	-$24.19	54% 9974-8477 (18451)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$40.72	$96.77	+$56.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$80.24	—	-$80.24
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$89.43	$84.31	-$5.11	66% 123592-63628 (187220)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$49.95	$84.31	+$34.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$39.48	—	-$39.48
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$96.3	$36	-$60.3	56% 7259-5596 (12855)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$76.14	—	-$76.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$20.16	$36	+$15.84
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 58.4¢	$67.85	$116.23	+$48.38	55% 16908-13568 (30476)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$71.17	$65.91	-$5.26	61% 93036-58467 (151503)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$43.47	$65.91	+$22.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$27.7	—	-$27.7
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$48.7	$58.62	+$10.53	65% 20341-11101 (31442)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$56.27	$61.84	+$5.57	52% 88667-83095 (171762)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 74.9¢	$75.81	$101.24	+$25.43	55% 43434-35853 (79287)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$37.5	$72.89	+$35.39	58% 12422-9084 (21506)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$28	$53.14	+$25.14	65% 123341-65952 (189293)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$29.12	$49.63	+$20.51	66% 111007-57237 (168244)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$22.89	$24	+$1.11	56% 57258-44263 (101521)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$30.39	—	-$30.39	64% 39494-22526 (62020)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Downavg 43.7¢	$10.6	$24.28	+$13.67	54% 14273-12058 (26331)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 79.7¢	$20.12	—	-$20.12	62% 43430-26325 (69755)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 50¢	$17.5	$35	+$17.5	50% 7529-7565 (15094)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.3	$10	+$4.7	12% 17834-132628 (150462)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,294.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.08

Record

74%

101844-36246 (138090)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Invested

$953.42

Value

$763.39

PnL

-$190.03

Record

73%

94943-35571 (130514)

Both legs:

Up$477.4642.7¢-$477.46

Down$475.9662.3¢+$287.43

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$894.3

Value

$845.15

PnL

-$49.16

Record

57%

9927-7438 (17365)

Both legs:

Up$461.5250.6¢-$461.52

Down$432.7851.2¢+$412.37

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.93

Value

$310.19

PnL

+$130.26

Record

54%

15056-12962 (28018)

Both legs:

Down$127.9641.3¢+$182.24

Up$51.9741.1¢-$51.97

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$221.78

Value

$180

PnL

-$41.78

Record

64%

57137-31956 (89093)

Both legs:

Up$113.5851.5¢-$113.58

Down$108.260.1¢+$71.8

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.76

Value

$257.97

PnL

+$138.21

Record

56%

13780-10787 (24567)

Both legs:

Down$89.4634.7¢+$168.51

Up$30.341.1¢-$30.3

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$297

Value

$300

PnL

+$3

Record

93%

22018-1702 (23720)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.29

Value

$150.86

PnL

+$12.57

Record

57%

6448-4784 (11232)

Both legs:

Down$82.8654.9¢+$68

Up$55.4344.8¢-$55.43

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$120.96

Value

$96.77

PnL

-$24.19

Record

54%

9974-8477 (18451)

Both legs:

Down$40.7242.1¢+$56.05

Up$80.2469.7¢-$80.24

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.43

Value

$84.31

PnL

-$5.11

Record

66%

123592-63628 (187220)

Both legs:

Down$49.9559.2¢+$34.37

Up$39.4859.7¢-$39.48

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$96.3

Value

$36

PnL

-$60.3

Record

56%

7259-5596 (12855)

Both legs:

Invested

$67.85

Value

$116.23

PnL

+$48.38

Record

55%

16908-13568 (30476)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71.17

Value

$65.91

PnL

-$5.26

Record

61%

93036-58467 (151503)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.7

Value

$58.62

PnL

+$10.53

Record

65%

20341-11101 (31442)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$56.27

Value

$61.84

PnL

+$5.57

Record

52%

88667-83095 (171762)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$75.81

Value

$101.24

PnL

+$25.43

Record

55%

43434-35853 (79287)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$37.5

Value

$72.89

PnL

+$35.39

Record

58%

12422-9084 (21506)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$28

Value

$53.14

PnL

+$25.14

Record

65%

123341-65952 (189293)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$29.12

Value

$49.63

PnL

+$20.51

Record

66%

111007-57237 (168244)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$22.89

Value

$24

PnL

+$1.11

Record

56%

57258-44263 (101521)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$30.39

Value

—

PnL

-$30.39

Record

64%

39494-22526 (62020)

tmsd-test<$100

Down

Invested

$10.6

Value

$24.28

PnL

+$13.67

Record

54%

14273-12058 (26331)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$20.12

Value

—

PnL

-$20.12

Record

62%

43430-26325 (69755)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$17.5

Value

$35

PnL

+$17.5

Record

50%

7529-7565 (15094)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.7

Record

12%

17834-132628 (150462)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 18 top traders (72%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4d233935...2665cf

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793078100

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $1.3K

+$13.08

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $300

+$3

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Arbitrage — excluded