Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$316.02

Smart Money Signal

16 of 26 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,927

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,436

Combined PnL-$765.33

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$35.05	93% 21903-1696 (23599)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 65.4¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$200.33	57% 9902-7404 (17306)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Downavg 40.8¢	$439.24	—	-$439.24	54% 15026-12934 (27960)
RL RLWG	Upavg 61.2¢	$713.3	$1.2K	+$452.28	50% 7452-7495 (14947)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Downavg 18.7¢	$171.05	$243.85	+$72.79	54% 14267-12047 (26314)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.7¢	$89.52	—	-$89.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$81.54	$243.85	+$162.31
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$264.96	$144.26	-$120.7	73% 94081-34736 (128817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$216.13	—	-$216.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$48.82	$144.26	+$95.44
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 59¢	$130.91	$200.83	+$69.92	56% 7214-5573 (12787)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 38.8¢	$175.18	$451.86	+$276.68	62% 43387-26280 (69667)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 42.8¢	$109.54	$255.7	+$146.16	58% 59659-43523 (103182)
NIULAI4	Upavg 88.9¢	$211.47	$238	+$26.53	78% 9167-2653 (11820)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$101.72	$84.87	-$16.85	57% 6433-4769 (11202)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$45.57	—	-$45.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$56.15	$84.87	+$28.72
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 80.6¢	$181.25	$224.88	+$43.63	69% 1557-705 (2262)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$59.4	—	-$59.4	55% 43017-35460 (78477)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 76¢	$76.29	—	-$76.29	74% 100978-36150 (137128)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 72¢	$72.21	—	-$72.21	64% 39390-22458 (61848)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 50¢	$24.14	$25	+$0.86	52% 88053-82440 (170493)
AR arbfinder2026	Upavg 59.5¢	$94.71	$159.3	+$64.59	55% 5293-4277 (9570)
Atomforge	Upavg 60.1¢	$81.55	$135.7	+$54.15	65% 3729-2015 (5744)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 72.8¢	$43.84	—	-$43.84	59% 37019-26207 (63226)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$31.05	$56.02	+$24.97	55% 16665-13373 (30038)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 45¢	$96.5	$50	-$16.26	65% 121395-64704 (186099)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$65.83	—	-$42.86	58% 12393-9043 (21436)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$48.83	$82.15	+$33.32	50% 629-632 (1261)
DE devonpoll	Upavg 47.8¢	$49.5	$103.52	+$54.02	51% 19436-18664 (38100)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 53¢	$17.77	$33.53	+$15.76	56% 57185-44208 (101393)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,641.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$35.05

Record

93%

21903-1696 (23599)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$1,269.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$200.33

Record

57%

9902-7404 (17306)

aswfadq1555CTR

Down

Invested

$439.24

Value

—

PnL

-$439.24

Record

54%

15026-12934 (27960)

RLWG

Invested

$713.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$452.28

Record

50%

7452-7495 (14947)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Down

Invested

$171.05

Value

$243.85

PnL

+$72.79

Record

54%

14267-12047 (26314)

Both legs:

Down$89.5218.7¢-$89.52

Up$81.5433.4¢+$162.31

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.96

Value

$144.26

PnL

-$120.7

Record

73%

94081-34736 (128817)

Both legs:

Down$216.1362.4¢-$216.13

Up$48.8233.8¢+$95.44

wzbbb

Invested

$130.91

Value

$200.83

PnL

+$69.92

Record

56%

7214-5573 (12787)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$175.18

Value

$451.86

PnL

+$276.68

Record

62%

43387-26280 (69667)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$109.54

Value

$255.7

PnL

+$146.16

Record

58%

59659-43523 (103182)

NIULAI4

Invested

$211.47

Value

$238

PnL

+$26.53

Record

78%

9167-2653 (11820)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$101.72

Value

$84.87

PnL

-$16.85

Record

57%

6433-4769 (11202)

Both legs:

Down$45.5752.7¢-$45.57

Up$56.1566.2¢+$28.72

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$181.25

Value

$224.88

PnL

+$43.63

Record

69%

1557-705 (2262)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

—

PnL

-$59.4

Record

55%

43017-35460 (78477)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.29

Value

—

PnL

-$76.29

Record

74%

100978-36150 (137128)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.21

Value

—

PnL

-$72.21

Record

64%

39390-22458 (61848)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$24.14

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

88053-82440 (170493)

arbfinder2026

Invested

$94.71

Value

$159.3

PnL

+$64.59

Record

55%

5293-4277 (9570)

Atomforge

Invested

$81.55

Value

$135.7

PnL

+$54.15

Record

65%

3729-2015 (5744)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.84

Value

—

PnL

-$43.84

Record

59%

37019-26207 (63226)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$31.05

Value

$56.02

PnL

+$24.97

Record

55%

16665-13373 (30038)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$96.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$16.26

Record

65%

121395-64704 (186099)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$65.83

Value

—

PnL

-$42.86

Record

58%

12393-9043 (21436)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e<$100

Invested

$48.83

Value

$82.15

PnL

+$33.32

Record

50%

629-632 (1261)

devonpoll

Invested

$49.5

Value

$103.52

PnL

+$54.02

Record

51%

19436-18664 (38100)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$17.77

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$15.76

Record

56%

57185-44208 (101393)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 26 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9bfa0f2...e8e427

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793060100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$35.05

trdyugiolkw

Up — $1.1K

-$200.33

aswfadq1555

CTR

Down — $0

-$439.24

RLWG

Up — $1.2K

+$452.28

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$72.79

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$120.7

wzbbb

Up — $200.83

+$69.92

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $451.86

+$276.68

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $255.7

+$146.16

NIULAI4

Up — $238

+$26.53

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