Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Up 57%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$188.99
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $582.77 | $558 | -$24.77 | 57% 9902-7404 (17306) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15.9¢ | $150.11 | — | -$150.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.5¢ | $432.66 | $558 | +$125.34 | |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $449.44 | $453.98 | +$4.54 | 74% 100978-36150 (137128) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.9¢ | $76.17 | — | -$76.17 | 54% 15026-12934 (27960) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $82.9 | $89.6 | +$6.71 | 57% 6433-4769 (11202) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.4¢ | $68.43 | $89.6 | +$21.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.8¢ | $14.46 | — | -$14.46 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $42.08 | — | -$42.08 | 56% 57185-44208 (101393) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $95 | $99 | +$4 | 55% 43017-35460 (78477) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $59.76 | — | -$44.68 | 65% 121395-64704 (186099) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 75.9¢ | $58.76 | $71.31 | +$12.55 | 56% 7214-5573 (12787) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.8¢ | $48.47 | $30.02 | -$8.4 | 65% 20212-11029 (31241) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.8¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 55% 16665-13373 (30038) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 86.9¢ | $168.95 | $46.35 | -$18.48 | 51% 19436-18664 (38100) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 98.4¢ | $44.33 | $45.05 | +$0.72 | 63% 49772-29482 (79254) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $25.88 | $27.4 | +$1.52 | 52% 88053-82440 (170493) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 21% 138-508 (646) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $4.81 | — | -$4.81 | 66% 110218-56576 (166794) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $4.46 | $6.76 | +$2.3 | 54% 14267-12047 (26314) |
Invested
$582.77
Value
$558
PnL
-$24.77
Record
57%
9902-7404 (17306)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$449.44
Value
$453.98
PnL
+$4.54
Record
74%
100978-36150 (137128)
Invested
$76.17
Value
—
PnL
-$76.17
Record
54%
15026-12934 (27960)
Invested
$82.9
Value
$89.6
PnL
+$6.71
Record
57%
6433-4769 (11202)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.08
Value
—
PnL
-$42.08
Record
56%
57185-44208 (101393)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$95
Value
$99
PnL
+$4
Record
55%
43017-35460 (78477)
Invested
$59.76
Value
—
PnL
-$44.68
Record
65%
121395-64704 (186099)
Invested
$58.76
Value
$71.31
PnL
+$12.55
Record
56%
7214-5573 (12787)
Invested
$48.47
Value
$30.02
PnL
-$8.4
Record
65%
20212-11029 (31241)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
55%
16665-13373 (30038)
Invested
$168.95
Value
$46.35
PnL
-$18.48
Record
51%
19436-18664 (38100)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$44.33
Value
$45.05
PnL
+$0.72
Record
63%
49772-29482 (79254)
Invested
$25.88
Value
$27.4
PnL
+$1.52
Record
52%
88053-82440 (170493)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
21%
138-508 (646)
Invested
$4.81
Value
—
PnL
-$4.81
Record
66%
110218-56576 (166794)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$2.3
Record
54%
14267-12047 (26314)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Up — $453.98
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
Up — $99
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $71.31
aaa221
Up — $30.02
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRDown — $0