Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,260

Combined PnL+$841.49

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,848

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.86	93% 21872-1696 (23568)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 50.2¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	57% 9895-7391 (17286)
NIULAI4	Upavg 69¢	$321.35	$466	+$144.65	78% 9161-2651 (11812)
AS asabovesobelow2	Upavg 68.2¢	$280.75	$408.73	+$127.98	69% 1554-705 (2259)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Upavg 41.8¢	$295.39	$706	+$410.61	73% 94081-34734 (128815)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 53.1¢	$508.25	—	-$508.25	56% 7196-5567 (12763)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$198.64	$196.26	-$2.38	57% 6429-4765 (11194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$95.9	$196.26	+$100.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$102.74	—	-$102.74
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$47.9	$74.32	+$26.42	65% 3717-2005 (5722)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$67.13	$50.04	-$17.09	56% 57139-44178 (101317)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$24.02	$50.04	+$26.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$43.11	—	-$43.11
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$83.25	$57.33	+$23.28	65% 121312-64687 (185999)
RL RLWG<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$17.8	$33.56	+$15.76	50% 7443-7492 (14935)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$33.67	—	-$33.67	54% 14262-12046 (26308)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$28.15	$42.22	+$14.07	55% 16647-13358 (30005)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54¢	$36.53	$30	+$8.11	65% 20166-10990 (31156)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 57¢	$22.65	$39.73	+$17.08	64% 39379-22457 (61836)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$17.76	—	-$17.76	58% 50116-36275 (86391)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$11.87	$21	+$9.13	55% 42983-35443 (78426)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 37¢	$6.61	$17.89	+$11.28	63% 49745-29472 (79217)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47¢	$7.99	$17	+$9.01	59% 36998-26188 (63186)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 62¢	$7.94	—	-$7.94	58% 59607-43493 (103100)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$4.99	—	-$4.99	66% 110197-56555 (166752)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 29¢	$3.77	$13	+$9.23	52% 87991-82424 (170415)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 26.6¢	$70.12	—	-$70.12	58% 12361-8954 (21315)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 9.5¢	$10.85	—	-$10.85	54% 15021-12931 (27952)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 68¢	$0.33	—	-$0.33	67% 22452-11228 (33680)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,318.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.86

Record

93%

21872-1696 (23568)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,391.75

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

57%

9895-7391 (17286)

NIULAI4

Invested

$321.35

Value

$466

PnL

+$144.65

Record

78%

9161-2651 (11812)

asabovesobelow2

Invested

$280.75

Value

$408.73

PnL

+$127.98

Record

69%

1554-705 (2259)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Invested

$295.39

Value

$706

PnL

+$410.61

Record

73%

94081-34734 (128815)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$508.25

Value

—

PnL

-$508.25

Record

56%

7196-5567 (12763)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.64

Value

$196.26

PnL

-$2.38

Record

57%

6429-4765 (11194)

Both legs:

Up$95.948.9¢+$100.36

Down$102.7460.8¢-$102.74

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$47.9

Value

$74.32

PnL

+$26.42

Record

65%

3717-2005 (5722)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.13

Value

$50.04

PnL

-$17.09

Record

56%

57139-44178 (101317)

Both legs:

Up$24.0248¢+$26.02

Down$43.1173.1¢-$43.11

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$83.25

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$23.28

Record

65%

121312-64687 (185999)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$33.56

PnL

+$15.76

Record

50%

7443-7492 (14935)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$33.67

Value

—

PnL

-$33.67

Record

54%

14262-12046 (26308)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$28.15

Value

$42.22

PnL

+$14.07

Record

55%

16647-13358 (30005)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$36.53

Value

$30

PnL

+$8.11

Record

65%

20166-10990 (31156)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$22.65

Value

$39.73

PnL

+$17.08

Record

64%

39379-22457 (61836)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.76

Value

—

PnL

-$17.76

Record

58%

50116-36275 (86391)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$11.87

Value

$21

PnL

+$9.13

Record

55%

42983-35443 (78426)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$17.89

PnL

+$11.28

Record

63%

49745-29472 (79217)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$17

PnL

+$9.01

Record

59%

36998-26188 (63186)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.94

Value

—

PnL

-$7.94

Record

58%

59607-43493 (103100)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.99

Value

—

PnL

-$4.99

Record

66%

110197-56555 (166752)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$13

PnL

+$9.23

Record

52%

87991-82424 (170415)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.12

Value

—

PnL

-$70.12

Record

58%

12361-8954 (21315)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.85

Value

—

PnL

-$10.85

Record

54%

15021-12931 (27952)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$0.33

Record

67%

22452-11228 (33680)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7277f4e6...005309

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793058300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$14.86

trdyugiolkw

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.4K

NIULAI4

Up — $466

+$144.65

asabovesobelow2

Up — $408.73

+$127.98

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Up — $706

wzbbb

Down — $0

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Up — $74.32

+$26.42

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$17.09

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $57.33

+$23.28

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