Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

10 of 19 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,393

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down9 traders

Total Value$381.63

Total Shares382

Combined PnL+$122.09

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 44¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	57% 9873-7375 (17248)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$380	$500	+$120	55% 48631-39531 (88162)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$305	$500	+$195
└ Up leg	Upavg 15¢	$75	—	-$75
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 32.9¢	$574.54	—	-$574.54	54% 14258-12036 (26294)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$157.98	$272.7	+$114.71	54% 15011-12907 (27918)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$30.21	$272.7	+$242.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$127.77	—	-$127.77
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$282.4	$264.51	-$17.89	54% 9847-8359 (18206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.3¢	$106.59	$264.51	+$157.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$175.81	—	-$175.81
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 81.3¢	$160.19	—	-$160.19	56% 7167-5546 (12713)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$152.8	$142.25	-$10.55	57% 6419-4757 (11176)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$67.92	$142.25	+$74.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.9¢	$84.88	—	-$84.88
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 81.3¢	$332.28	—	-$332.28	50% 7428-7474 (14902)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$46.8	—	+$26.1	51% 19388-18619 (38007)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 41¢	$40.18	$98	+$57.82	12% 17680-128923 (146603)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$68.48	$60	+$18.26	65% 20047-10914 (30961)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 14.8¢	$28.18	—	-$28.18	66% 109300-55693 (164993)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$44.8	$40.74	-$4.06	55% 42897-35362 (78259)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$15.91	—	-$15.91	78% 88093-25070 (113163)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$31.49	$29	-$2.49	65% 119380-63148 (182528)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 69¢	$69.2	$100.29	+$31.09	58% 11888-8697 (20585)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 92.2¢	$11.98	$13	+$1.02	78% 9152-2643 (11795)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$8.88	—	-$8.88	58% 49959-36097 (86056)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 69¢	$17.3	$25.07	+$7.77	58% 59354-43324 (102678)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 13¢	$1.35	$10.36	+$9.01	52% 87624-81970 (169594)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 29¢	$1.5	$5.17	+$3.67	55% 16550-13280 (29830)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.15	—	-$1.15	59% 36902-26123 (63025)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$16.8	—	-$16.8	58% 12348-8885 (21233)