Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$334.69
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 96¢ | $833.47 | $853.01 | +$19.54 | 56% 7167-5546 (12713) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 73.9¢ | $777.01 | $713.38 | -$63.63 | 57% 9873-7375 (17248) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.9¢ | $281.22 | $512.24 | +$231.01 | 57% 66959-50799 (117758) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 38.5¢ | $296 | $165.26 | -$130.73 | 54% 15011-12907 (27918) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.5¢ | $166.21 | — | -$166.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.5¢ | $129.78 | $165.26 | +$35.48 | |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 76.1¢ | $258.57 | $241.24 | -$17.33 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $145.88 | $293.53 | +$147.65 | 59% 36902-26123 (63025) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $32.2 | — | -$32.2 | 54% 14258-12036 (26294) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $41.35 | $48.33 | +$6.98 | 57% 6419-4757 (11176) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $44.44 | $93.37 | +$48.93 | 12% 17680-128923 (146603) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $39.23 | $34.68 | -$4.55 | 65% 119380-63148 (182528) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $34.15 | $41 | +$6.85 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $16.98 | — | -$16.98 | 55% 42897-35362 (78259) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $24.18 | $36.12 | +$11.94 | 66% 109300-55693 (164993) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $11.35 | $16.07 | +$4.72 | 61% 92255-58012 (150267) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $14.05 | $20 | +$5.95 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.2¢ | $13 | — | -$13 | 50% 7428-7474 (14902) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 58% 59354-43324 (102678) |
Invested
$833.47
Value
$853.01
PnL
+$19.54
Record
56%
7167-5546 (12713)
Invested
$777.01
Value
$713.38
PnL
-$63.63
Record
57%
9873-7375 (17248)
Invested
$281.22
Value
$512.24
PnL
+$231.01
Record
57%
66959-50799 (117758)
Invested
$296
Value
$165.26
PnL
-$130.73
Record
54%
15011-12907 (27918)
Both legs:
Invested
$258.57
Value
$241.24
PnL
-$17.33
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$145.88
Value
$293.53
PnL
+$147.65
Record
59%
36902-26123 (63025)
Invested
$32.2
Value
—
PnL
-$32.2
Record
54%
14258-12036 (26294)
Invested
$41.35
Value
$48.33
PnL
+$6.98
Record
57%
6419-4757 (11176)
Invested
$44.44
Value
$93.37
PnL
+$48.93
Record
12%
17680-128923 (146603)
Invested
$39.23
Value
$34.68
PnL
-$4.55
Record
65%
119380-63148 (182528)
Invested
$34.15
Value
$41
PnL
+$6.85
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$16.98
Value
—
PnL
-$16.98
Record
55%
42897-35362 (78259)
Invested
$24.18
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$11.94
Record
66%
109300-55693 (164993)
Invested
$11.35
Value
$16.07
PnL
+$4.72
Record
61%
92255-58012 (150267)
Invested
$14.05
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.95
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$13
Value
—
PnL
-$13
Record
50%
7428-7474 (14902)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
58%
59354-43324 (102678)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
wzbbb
Down — $853.01
trdyugiolkw
Down — $713.38
uninformedfloww
Down — $512.24
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $241.24
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $293.53
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $48.33
Hsilverbasher
Down — $93.37
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $34.68