Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$234.44
Smart Money Signal
10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.95 | 93% 21764-1691 (23455) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 73.9¢ | $450.19 | $378.91 | -$71.28 | 57% 9873-7375 (17248) |
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 68.5¢ | $180.94 | $264.2 | +$83.26 | 54% 14258-12036 (26294) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 28.5¢ | $204.25 | — | -$204.25 | 54% 15011-12907 (27918) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $153.72 | $148 | -$5.72 | 56% 7167-5546 (12713) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.7¢ | $125.3 | $148 | +$22.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.2¢ | $28.42 | — | -$28.42 | |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 67.7¢ | $117.11 | $102.07 | -$15.04 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $81 | $100 | +$19 | 46% 363-418 (781) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.6¢ | $94.54 | — | -$94.54 | 12% 17680-128923 (146603) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $67.25 | $78.99 | +$11.74 | 57% 6419-4757 (11176) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 80.6¢ | $69.45 | $85 | +$15.55 | 50% 7428-7474 (14902) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $18.25 | $20.39 | +$2.14 | 55% 16550-13280 (29830) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.4¢ | $25.15 | — | +$3.2 | 51% 19388-18619 (38007) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $10.15 | $15.15 | +$5 | 65% 20047-10914 (30961) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.7 | $2.7 | +$0 | 84% 54680-10153 (64833) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.4¢ | $3.17 | — | -$3.17 | 52% 87624-81970 (169594) |
Invested
$1,381.05
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.95
Record
93%
21764-1691 (23455)
Invested
$450.19
Value
$378.91
PnL
-$71.28
Record
57%
9873-7375 (17248)
Invested
$180.94
Value
$264.2
PnL
+$83.26
Record
54%
14258-12036 (26294)
Invested
$204.25
Value
—
PnL
-$204.25
Record
54%
15011-12907 (27918)
Invested
$153.72
Value
$148
PnL
-$5.72
Record
56%
7167-5546 (12713)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.11
Value
$102.07
PnL
-$15.04
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$81
Value
$100
PnL
+$19
Record
46%
363-418 (781)
Invested
$94.54
Value
—
PnL
-$94.54
Record
12%
17680-128923 (146603)
Invested
$67.25
Value
$78.99
PnL
+$11.74
Record
57%
6419-4757 (11176)
Invested
$69.45
Value
$85
PnL
+$15.55
Record
50%
7428-7474 (14902)
Invested
$18.25
Value
$20.39
PnL
+$2.14
Record
55%
16550-13280 (29830)
Invested
$25.15
Value
—
PnL
+$3.2
Record
51%
19388-18619 (38007)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$5
Record
65%
20047-10914 (30961)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
54680-10153 (64833)
Invested
$3.17
Value
—
PnL
-$3.17
Record
52%
87624-81970 (169594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
trdyugiolkw
Down — $378.91
tmsd-test
Down — $264.2
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $102.07
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down — $100
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $78.99
RLWG
Down — $85