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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

24

Down 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 24 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders
Total Value$2.2K
Total Shares2,212
Combined PnL+$443.98
Down12 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares3,688
Combined PnL$-2.0K
Up — 50%Down — 50%
AS
aswfadq1555
Up

Invested

$769.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$395.53

Record

54%

14996-12890 (27886)

TR
trdyugiolkwCTR
Down

Invested

$947.52

Value

—

PnL

-$947.52

Record

57%

9862-7369 (17231)

HO
hoodquant
Up

Invested

$315.75

Value

$319

PnL

+$3.25

Record

93%

21707-1689 (23396)

TH
thesidehustle
Up

Invested

$270.72

Value

$268.01

PnL

-$2.71

Record

54%

9847-8359 (18206)

TM
tmsd-testCTR
Down

Invested

$278.93

Value

—

PnL

-$278.93

Record

54%

14257-12035 (26292)

AL
almachCTR
Down

Invested

$244.06

Value

—

PnL

-$244.06

Record

55%

46459-38166 (84625)

HS
HsilverbasherCTR
Down

Invested

$205.45

Value

—

PnL

-$205.45

Record

12%

17582-126512 (144094)

MO
mo-moneyCTR
Down

Invested

$138.89

Value

—

PnL

-$138.89

Record

55%

48280-39244 (87524)

PE
peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$176.55

Value

$147.77

PnL

-$28.79

Record

57%

6412-4756 (11168)

Both legs:

Up$98.0866.4¢+$49.69
Down$78.4744.6¢-$78.47
DR
drfc4eybh7i8
Up

Invested

$157.5

Value

$124.58

PnL

-$23.4

Record

66%

118135-62194 (180329)

WZ
wzbbb<$100
Up

Invested

$55.97

Value

$65.09

PnL

+$9.12

Record

56%

7154-5537 (12691)

RL
RLWG<$100
Up

Invested

$51.14

Value

$54.99

PnL

+$3.85

Record

50%

7422-7468 (14890)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100
Up

Invested

$37.95

Value

$54.39

PnL

+$16.44

Record

55%

16513-13257 (29770)

AA
aaa221<$100
Up

Invested

$35.77

Value

$36.97

PnL

+$1.95

Record

65%

19990-10879 (30869)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$36.75

Value

—

PnL

-$36.75

Record

58%

12184-8833 (21017)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Up

Invested

$37.35

Value

$50.79

PnL

+$13.44

Record

58%

11877-8681 (20558)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$26.28

Value

—

PnL

-$26.28

Record

59%

36785-26074 (62859)

PB
PBot-6<$100
Up

Invested

$24.14

Value

$47.33

PnL

+$23.19

Record

58%

49367-35500 (84867)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$19.24

Value

—

PnL

-$19.24

Record

52%

87251-81446 (168697)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$26.22

Value

—

PnL

-$26.22

Record

55%

41545-33964 (75509)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Up

Invested

$22.1

Value

$25.42

PnL

+$3.32

Record

58%

58725-42827 (101552)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$11.23

Value

—

PnL

-$11.23

Record

63%

47924-28546 (76470)

BO
BonereaperCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.24

Value

—

PnL

-$6.24

Record

76%

70725-22108 (92833)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$23

Value

—

PnL

-$23

Record

66%

108603-55064 (163667)

DE
devonpoll<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19245-18476 (37721)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x589b0067...8392dc
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1793041200

Traders in this Market

AS

aswfadq1555

Up — $1.2K

+$395.53
TR

trdyugiolkw

CTR

Down — $0

-$947.52
HO

hoodquant

Up — $319

+$3.25
TH

thesidehustle

Up — $268.01

-$2.71
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Down — $0

-$278.93
AL

almach

CTR

Down — $0

-$244.06
HS

Hsilverbasher

CTR

Down — $0

-$205.45
MO

mo-money

CTR

Down — $0

-$138.89
PE

peepeepoopoo24

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.79
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $124.58

-$23.4
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