Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
-$250.92
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.96 | 93% 21707-1689 (23396) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 97.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$44.87 | 56% 7154-5537 (12691) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $452.46 | $551.04 | +$98.57 | 57% 9862-7369 (17231) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $322.72 | $551.04 | +$228.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.7¢ | $129.74 | — | -$129.74 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 47.6¢ | $384.73 | — | -$384.73 | 54% 14996-12890 (27886) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.4¢ | $8.67 | — | +$39.69 | 51% 19245-18476 (37721) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $98.81 | $60 | -$38.81 | 54% 9847-8359 (18206) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $49.18 | $59.99 | +$10.81 | 57% 6412-4756 (11168) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $52.14 | $100 | +$47.86 | 59% 36785-26074 (62859) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $13.18 | $15.57 | +$2.39 | 55% 16513-13257 (29770) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $10.45 | — | -$10.45 | 54% 14257-12035 (26292) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $9 | $18 | +$9 | 58% 11877-8681 (20558) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.7¢ | $3.85 | — | -$3.85 | 52% 87251-81446 (168697) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $4 | $10 | +$6 | 55% 41545-33964 (75509) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $21.81 | — | +$11.34 | 65% 19990-10879 (30869) |
Invested
$1,481.04
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.96
Record
93%
21707-1689 (23396)
Invested
$1,876.89
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$44.87
Record
56%
7154-5537 (12691)
Invested
$452.46
Value
$551.04
PnL
+$98.57
Record
57%
9862-7369 (17231)
Both legs:
Invested
$384.73
Value
—
PnL
-$384.73
Record
54%
14996-12890 (27886)
Invested
$8.67
Value
—
PnL
+$39.69
Record
51%
19245-18476 (37721)
Invested
$98.81
Value
$60
PnL
-$38.81
Record
54%
9847-8359 (18206)
Invested
$49.18
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$10.81
Record
57%
6412-4756 (11168)
Invested
$52.14
Value
$100
PnL
+$47.86
Record
59%
36785-26074 (62859)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$15.57
PnL
+$2.39
Record
55%
16513-13257 (29770)
Invested
$10.45
Value
—
PnL
-$10.45
Record
54%
14257-12035 (26292)
Invested
$9
Value
$18
PnL
+$9
Record
58%
11877-8681 (20558)
Invested
$3.85
Value
—
PnL
-$3.85
Record
52%
87251-81446 (168697)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4
Value
$10
PnL
+$6
Record
55%
41545-33964 (75509)
Invested
$21.81
Value
—
PnL
+$11.34
Record
65%
19990-10879 (30869)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
wzbbb
Down — $1.9K
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $60
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $59.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $100
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $15.57
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0