Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 67%
4 arb excluded
$4.0K
$181.04
Smart Money Signal
12 of 18 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$40.98 | 93% 21574-1680 (23254) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 35.3¢ | $744.86 | $795.53 | +$50.67 | 57% 9836-7351 (17187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.5¢ | $345.7 | $795.53 | +$449.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.3¢ | $399.16 | — | -$399.16 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 40.3¢ | $231.37 | $411.2 | +$179.83 | 54% 7644-6416 (14060) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $113.2 | $180 | +$70.11 | 52% 17120-15945 (33065) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61¢ | $109.8 | $180 | +$70.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68¢ | $54.24 | — | -$0.09 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 87.7¢ | $122.35 | $98.8 | -$23.55 | 54% 9773-8307 (18080) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.7¢ | $86.66 | $98.8 | +$12.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.6¢ | $35.68 | — | -$35.68 | |
TH thismonthCTR | Upavg 31.4¢ | $305 | — | -$123.58 | 41% 556-814 (1370) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 59¢ | $69.42 | $100.39 | +$30.97 | 58% 11844-8645 (20489) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $28.66 | $52.56 | +$23.9 | 66% 118014-62112 (180126) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39¢ | $20.5 | $52.56 | +$32.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 7¢ | $8.16 | — | -$8.16 | |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $67.57 | $75 | +$7.43 | 78% 9135-2637 (11772) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $62.25 | — | -$62.25 | 56% 16429-13163 (29592) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $35.6 | $65.2 | +$29.6 | 54% 14251-12029 (26280) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.4¢ | $7.06 | — | -$7.06 | 67% 22329-11156 (33485) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 42.5¢ | $54.51 | $128.29 | +$73.78 | 56% 13688-10714 (24402) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 46.9¢ | $30.63 | $47.38 | +$16.75 | 57% 6392-4749 (11141) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $41.53 | — | -$41.53 | 65% 19843-10779 (30622) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $27.96 | $45.21 | +$17.25 | 58% 12163-8762 (20925) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.7¢ | $10.7 | — | -$10.7 | 52% 87102-81310 (168412) |
AS asabovesobelow2<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $19.75 | $22.44 | +$2.69 | 69% 1550-705 (2255) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $21.57 | $51.36 | +$29.79 | 64% 39186-22329 (61515) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $8.8 | $15 | +$6.2 | 59% 7413-5131 (12544) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $9.91 | — | -$9.91 | 58% 49202-35356 (84558) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.9 | $5.7 | +$0.8 | 65% 3681-1952 (5633) |
Invested
$1,870.01
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$40.98
Record
93%
21574-1680 (23254)
Invested
$744.86
Value
$795.53
PnL
+$50.67
Record
57%
9836-7351 (17187)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.37
Value
$411.2
PnL
+$179.83
Record
54%
7644-6416 (14060)
Invested
$113.2
Value
$180
PnL
+$70.11
Record
52%
17120-15945 (33065)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.35
Value
$98.8
PnL
-$23.55
Record
54%
9773-8307 (18080)
Both legs:
Invested
$305
Value
—
PnL
-$123.58
Record
41%
556-814 (1370)
Invested
$69.42
Value
$100.39
PnL
+$30.97
Record
58%
11844-8645 (20489)
Invested
$28.66
Value
$52.56
PnL
+$23.9
Record
66%
118014-62112 (180126)
Both legs:
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$67.57
Value
$75
PnL
+$7.43
Record
78%
9135-2637 (11772)
Invested
$62.25
Value
—
PnL
-$62.25
Record
56%
16429-13163 (29592)
Invested
$35.6
Value
$65.2
PnL
+$29.6
Record
54%
14251-12029 (26280)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.06
Value
—
PnL
-$7.06
Record
67%
22329-11156 (33485)
Invested
$54.51
Value
$128.29
PnL
+$73.78
Record
56%
13688-10714 (24402)
Invested
$30.63
Value
$47.38
PnL
+$16.75
Record
57%
6392-4749 (11141)
Invested
$41.53
Value
—
PnL
-$41.53
Record
65%
19843-10779 (30622)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$27.96
Value
$45.21
PnL
+$17.25
Record
58%
12163-8762 (20925)
Invested
$10.7
Value
—
PnL
-$10.7
Record
52%
87102-81310 (168412)
Invested
$19.75
Value
$22.44
PnL
+$2.69
Record
69%
1550-705 (2255)
ohioism<$100Invested
$21.57
Value
$51.36
PnL
+$29.79
Record
64%
39186-22329 (61515)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.2
Record
59%
7413-5131 (12544)
Invested
$9.91
Value
—
PnL
-$9.91
Record
58%
49202-35356 (84558)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.8
Record
65%
3681-1952 (5633)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.9K
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Down — $411.2
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thismonth
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $100.39
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
NIULAI4
Down — $75
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0