Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 45%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$423.79
Smart Money Signal
10 of 22 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 29.4¢ | $859.14 | $696.22 | -$162.92 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25¢ | $173.71 | $696.22 | +$522.51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.4¢ | $685.42 | — | -$685.42 | |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 36.2¢ | $447.63 | $551.48 | +$103.85 | 60% 9512-6329 (15841) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $204.12 | $551.48 | +$347.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.2¢ | $243.51 | — | -$243.51 | |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 68.3¢ | $398.19 | $582.75 | +$184.57 | 54% 14241-12016 (26257) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 48.1¢ | $176.59 | — | -$176.59 | 56% 13639-10672 (24311) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 48.3¢ | $204.99 | — | -$204.99 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 83.4¢ | $165.17 | $198 | +$32.83 | 78% 9098-2615 (11713) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 67¢ | $132.01 | — | -$132.01 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Downavg 69.4¢ | $126.33 | — | -$126.33 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Upavg 81.4¢ | $122.5 | $150.54 | +$28.04 | 69% 1543-705 (2248) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 26.4¢ | $23.76 | $90.1 | +$66.34 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $75.46 | — | -$75.46 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $47.42 | — | -$47.42 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $40.42 | $50 | +$12.91 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.8¢ | $42 | — | -$42 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $29.82 | — | -$29.82 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $48.17 | $30 | -$11.23 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 39.4¢ | $14.25 | $18.5 | +$4.25 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $19.6 | $23.36 | +$3.76 | 65% 3645-1943 (5588) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $22.2 | — | -$22.2 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $15.62 | — | -$15.62 | 59% 44281-30660 (74941) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 17¢ | $17.05 | $100.28 | +$83.24 | 64% 19321-10933 (30254) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $8.76 | — | -$8.76 | 68% 94633-44122 (138755) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 14.9¢ | $9.39 | $63 | +$53.61 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 57% 6200-4745 (10945) |
Invested
$859.14
Value
$696.22
PnL
-$162.92
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Both legs:
Invested
$447.63
Value
$551.48
PnL
+$103.85
Record
60%
9512-6329 (15841)
Both legs:
Invested
$398.19
Value
$582.75
PnL
+$184.57
Record
54%
14241-12016 (26257)
Invested
$176.59
Value
—
PnL
-$176.59
Record
56%
13639-10672 (24311)
Invested
$204.99
Value
—
PnL
-$204.99
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
NIULAI4Invested
$165.17
Value
$198
PnL
+$32.83
Record
78%
9098-2615 (11713)
Invested
$132.01
Value
—
PnL
-$132.01
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$126.33
Value
—
PnL
-$126.33
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
Invested
$122.5
Value
$150.54
PnL
+$28.04
Record
69%
1543-705 (2248)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$90.1
PnL
+$66.34
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
Invested
$75.46
Value
—
PnL
-$75.46
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$47.42
Value
—
PnL
-$47.42
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$40.42
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.91
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$42
Value
—
PnL
-$42
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
Invested
$29.82
Value
—
PnL
-$29.82
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$48.17
Value
$30
PnL
-$11.23
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$4.25
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
$23.36
PnL
+$3.76
Record
65%
3645-1943 (5588)
Invested
$22.2
Value
—
PnL
-$22.2
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Invested
$15.62
Value
—
PnL
-$15.62
Record
59%
44281-30660 (74941)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$17.05
Value
$100.28
PnL
+$83.24
Record
64%
19321-10933 (30254)
Invested
$8.76
Value
—
PnL
-$8.76
Record
68%
94633-44122 (138755)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.39
Value
$63
PnL
+$53.61
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
57%
6200-4745 (10945)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $582.75
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $198
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
peepeepoopoo24
CTRDown — $0
asabovesobelow2
Up — $150.54
devonpoll
Up — $90.1