Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Up 40%
$2.2K
$-6.3K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 26 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 54.7¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 95.8¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.3K | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Upavg 58.4¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 60% 9512-6329 (15841) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 61.1¢ | $544.52 | — | -$544.52 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 22.2¢ | $144.68 | — | -$144.68 | 54% 14241-12016 (26257) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.3¢ | $304.34 | $227.45 | -$76.89 | 56% 13639-10672 (24311) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 69.1¢ | $319.76 | $289.52 | -$30.23 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $325.86 | $226.68 | -$99.18 | 93% 20886-1673 (22559) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $182.92 | $225.99 | +$43.08 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $76.21 | — | -$76.21 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $60.54 | — | -$44.3 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 90.7¢ | $101.92 | $78.08 | -$23.84 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.4¢ | $11.92 | — | -$11.92 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $68.53 | $75.19 | +$6.66 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 30.4¢ | $31.05 | $102.24 | +$71.19 | 58% 11584-8476 (20060) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $193.9 | $227.14 | +$33.24 | 78% 9098-2615 (11713) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 57.2¢ | $122.5 | $214.32 | +$91.82 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $155.5 | $179.78 | +$24.28 | 69% 1543-705 (2248) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $11.87 | — | -$11.87 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $19.28 | $23.5 | +$4.22 | 68% 94633-44122 (138755) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 35.6¢ | $46.2 | $129.67 | +$83.47 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $49.98 | $58.9 | +$8.92 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $6.72 | — | -$6.72 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 8.5¢ | $5.94 | $70 | +$64.06 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $29.4 | $37.8 | +$8.4 | 65% 3645-1943 (5588) |
Invested
$2,217.16
Value
—
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Invested
$2,348.37
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Invested
$1,112.28
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
60%
9512-6329 (15841)
Invested
$544.52
Value
—
PnL
-$544.52
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$144.68
Value
—
PnL
-$144.68
Record
54%
14241-12016 (26257)
Invested
$304.34
Value
$227.45
PnL
-$76.89
Record
56%
13639-10672 (24311)
Invested
$319.76
Value
$289.52
PnL
-$30.23
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$325.86
Value
$226.68
PnL
-$99.18
Record
93%
20886-1673 (22559)
Invested
$182.92
Value
$225.99
PnL
+$43.08
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$76.21
Value
—
PnL
-$76.21
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
Invested
$60.54
Value
—
PnL
-$44.3
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$101.92
Value
$78.08
PnL
-$23.84
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$11.92
Value
—
PnL
-$11.92
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$68.53
Value
$75.19
PnL
+$6.66
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$31.05
Value
$102.24
PnL
+$71.19
Record
58%
11584-8476 (20060)
NIULAI4Invested
$193.9
Value
$227.14
PnL
+$33.24
Record
78%
9098-2615 (11713)
Invested
$122.5
Value
$214.32
PnL
+$91.82
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$155.5
Value
$179.78
PnL
+$24.28
Record
69%
1543-705 (2248)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.87
Value
—
PnL
-$11.87
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$19.28
Value
$23.5
PnL
+$4.22
Record
68%
94633-44122 (138755)
wowitsamazingInvested
$46.2
Value
$129.67
PnL
+$83.47
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
ohioism<$100Invested
$49.98
Value
$58.9
PnL
+$8.92
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
Invested
$6.72
Value
—
PnL
-$6.72
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.94
Value
$70
PnL
+$64.06
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$29.4
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$8.4
Record
65%
3645-1943 (5588)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
trdyugiolkw
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $227.45
thesidehustle
Down — $289.52
hoodquant
Down — $226.68
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $225.99
peepeepoopoo24
CTRUp — $0