Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 91%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$908.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 24 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,434

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$103.95

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 43.1¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$325.97	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$947.14	$962	+$14.86	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 46.3¢	$412.66	$700.64	+$287.98	54% 7032-5938 (12970)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 54.3¢	$349.77	$425.82	+$76.06	60% 9512-6329 (15841)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75¢	$396.63	$413.7	+$17.07	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 48.8¢	$187.16	$262	+$74.84	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$120.14	$127.6	+$7.46	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$69.03	$127.6	+$58.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$51.11	—	-$51.11
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 53¢	$91.54	$169.98	+$78.44	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$69.75	$80	+$10.25	58% 6311-4657 (10968)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$44.8	$80	+$35.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$24.95	—	-$24.95
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$99.35	—	-$99.35	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$64.37	$69.22	+$4.85	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 68¢	$40.04	$58.88	+$18.84	64% 19321-10933 (30254)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$54.11	$59.99	+$25.58	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$20.42	$40.04	+$19.62	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54¢	$35.04	$50	+$21.8	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$15.94	$25.03	+$9.09	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 69.9¢	$11.12	$15.9	+$4.78	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 39¢	$6.8	$10.25	+$3.45	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 57¢	$11.4	$20	+$8.6	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 62¢	$9.3	$15	+$5.7	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$4.13	$13.49	+$9.36	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$4.6	—	-$4.6	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
BE beeemw<$100	Downavg 70¢	$5	$7.14	+$2.14	78% 245-69 (314)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 71¢	$3.55	$5	+$1.45	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.6	$5	+$2.4	57% 6200-4745 (10945)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,778.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$325.97

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$947.14

Value

$962

PnL

+$14.86

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$412.66

Value

$700.64

PnL

+$287.98

Record

54%

7032-5938 (12970)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$349.77

Value

$425.82

PnL

+$76.06

Record

60%

9512-6329 (15841)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$396.63

Value

$413.7

PnL

+$17.07

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$187.16

Value

$262

PnL

+$74.84

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.14

Value

$127.6

PnL

+$7.46

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Down$69.0354.1¢+$58.57

Up$51.1147.7¢-$51.11

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$91.54

Value

$169.98

PnL

+$78.44

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.75

Value

$80

PnL

+$10.25

Record

58%

6311-4657 (10968)

Both legs:

Down$44.856¢+$35.2

Up$24.9541.6¢-$24.95

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$99.35

Value

—

PnL

-$99.35

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.37

Value

$69.22

PnL

+$4.85

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$40.04

Value

$58.88

PnL

+$18.84

Record

64%

19321-10933 (30254)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$54.11

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$25.58

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$20.42

Value

$40.04

PnL

+$19.62

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$35.04

Value

$50

PnL

+$21.8

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$15.94

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$9.09

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$11.12

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$4.78

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$3.45

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$8.6

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$9.3

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.7

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$4.13

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$9.36

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

—

PnL

-$4.6

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

beeemw<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$2.14

Record

78%

245-69 (314)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$3.55

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$2.6

Value

PnL

+$2.4

Record

57%

6200-4745 (10945)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 24 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x961fe131...090a38

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1793004300

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $2.1K

+$325.97

hoodquant

Down — $962

+$14.86

aswfadq1555

Down — $700.64

+$287.98

trdyugiolkw

Down — $425.82

+$76.06

CrouchPredictions

Down — $413.7

+$17.07

thesidehustle

Down — $262

+$74.84

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.46

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $169.98

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0