Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (88%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$157.79

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,156

Combined PnL+$154.67

Down2 traders

Total Value$24.38

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$3.12

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 85.7¢	$872.54	$1.0K	+$138.79	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 79.9¢	$347.25	$401.7	+$54.46	54% 7032-5938 (12970)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 85.7¢	$393.49	$371.16	-$22.33	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 94.8¢	$361.6	$351.11	-$10.49	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 92¢	$298.17	$300.09	+$1.92	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 98.7¢	$283.16	$285.18	+$2.01	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 94.4¢	$182.02	$174.49	-$7.53	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 94.2¢	$60.42	$47.91	+$3.13	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 95¢	$29.69	$26.63	-$3.07	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$21.2	$24.26	+$3.05	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$25.63	$23.92	-$1.71	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 95.1¢	$22.03	$21.97	-$0.06	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 92.9¢	$21.12	$20.92	-$0.2	58% 6311-4657 (10968)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 99.2¢	$7.94	$7.98	+$0.04	60% 9512-6329 (15841)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 91¢	$12.52	$4.53	-$0.31	67% 14190-7009 (21199)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.12	+$0.07	68% 94633-44122 (138755)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$872.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$138.79

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

aswfadq1555

Invested

$347.25

Value

$401.7

PnL

+$54.46

Record

54%

7032-5938 (12970)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$393.49

Value

$371.16

PnL

-$22.33

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

thesidehustle

Invested

$361.6

Value

$351.11

PnL

-$10.49

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$298.17

Value

$300.09

PnL

+$1.92

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

wzbbb

Invested

$283.16

Value

$285.18

PnL

+$2.01

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$182.02

Value

$174.49

PnL

-$7.53

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$60.42

Value

$47.91

PnL

+$3.13

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$29.69

Value

$26.63

PnL

-$3.07

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.2

Value

$24.26

PnL

+$3.05

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$25.63

Value

$23.92

PnL

-$1.71

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$22.03

Value

$21.97

PnL

-$0.06

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$21.12

Value

$20.92

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

6311-4657 (10968)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

60%

9512-6329 (15841)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$12.52

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.31

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.07

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.