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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Down β€” but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$312.56

Combined PnL

-$601.07

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares729
Combined PnL-$622.32
Up5 traders
Total Value$244.17
Total Shares244
Combined PnL+$21.25
Down β€” 64%Up β€” 36%

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x5debc2fe...4d976d
Slug
btc-updown-15m-1792999800
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