Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$312.56
-$601.07
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 49.2Β’ | $454.66 | β | -$454.66 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 52.2Β’ | $137.23 | $136.58 | -$0.65 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 43.2Β’ | $142.25 | $68.39 | -$73.86 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 98Β’ | $67.02 | $68.39 | +$1.37 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 43.2Β’ | $75.22 | β | -$75.22 | |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 79.8Β’ | $54.5 | $52 | -$2.5 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
![]() wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 53Β’ | $39 | β | -$39 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 56.3Β’ | $27.05 | β | -$27.05 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 73.9Β’ | $22.73 | β | -$22.73 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.5Β’ | $21.23 | β | -$21.23 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.5Β’ | $15.65 | β | -$15.65 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 77Β’ | $19.32 | β | -$19.32 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 86.8Β’ | $12.64 | $14.56 | +$1.92 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 52.1Β’ | $11.99 | β | -$11.99 | 14% 16230-96920 (113150) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.5Β’ | $10.7 | β | -$10.7 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $9.52 | $19.03 | +$9.52 | 59% 44281-30660 (74941) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 41.1Β’ | $9.04 | $22 | +$12.96 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$454.66
Value
β
PnL
-$454.66
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$137.23
Value
$136.58
PnL
-$0.65
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
Invested
$142.25
Value
$68.39
PnL
-$73.86
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$54.5
Value
$52
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$39
Value
β
PnL
-$39
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
Invested
$27.05
Value
β
PnL
-$27.05
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$22.73
Value
β
PnL
-$22.73
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$21.23
Value
β
PnL
-$21.23
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$15.65
Value
β
PnL
-$15.65
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$19.32
Value
β
PnL
-$19.32
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.64
Value
$14.56
PnL
+$1.92
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$11.99
Value
β
PnL
-$11.99
Record
14%
16230-96920 (113150)
Invested
$10.7
Value
β
PnL
-$10.7
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$19.03
PnL
+$9.52
Record
59%
44281-30660 (74941)
Invested
$9.04
Value
$22
PnL
+$12.96
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
CTRDown β $0
peepeepoopoo24
Up β $136.58
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage β excluded

MayorMamdani
Up β $52

wowitsamazing
CTRDown β $0
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRDown β $0
uninformedfloww
CTRDown β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown β $0