Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
13
Down 38%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$218.63
Smart Money Signal
5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9Β’ | $784.22 | $785 | +$0.78 | 83% 39878-8374 (48252) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.7Β’ | $169.95 | $182.31 | +$12.36 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 62.7Β’ | $114.25 | $182.31 | +$68.06 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 47.6Β’ | $55.7 | β | -$55.7 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 50.8Β’ | $111.68 | β | -$111.68 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 77.3Β’ | $57.91 | $59.99 | +$2.08 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 53Β’ | $59.97 | β | -$59.97 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
![]() wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4Β’ | $39.75 | β | -$39.75 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72.3Β’ | $21.65 | $29.92 | +$8.27 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.6Β’ | $19.04 | β | -$19.04 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 50.9Β’ | $18.39 | $36.11 | +$17.72 | 14% 16230-96920 (113150) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.3Β’ | $4.5 | β | -$4.5 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.8Β’ | $8.31 | β | -$8.31 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 67Β’ | $6.7 | $10 | +$3.3 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 45Β’ | $4.5 | β | -$4.5 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.2Β’ | $3.04 | β | -$3.04 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
Invested
$784.22
Value
$785
PnL
+$0.78
Record
83%
39878-8374 (48252)
Invested
$169.95
Value
$182.31
PnL
+$12.36
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.68
Value
β
PnL
-$111.68
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$57.91
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$2.08
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
Invested
$59.97
Value
β
PnL
-$59.97
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
β
PnL
-$39.75
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
Invested
$21.65
Value
$29.92
PnL
+$8.27
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$19.04
Value
β
PnL
-$19.04
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Invested
$18.39
Value
$36.11
PnL
+$17.72
Record
14%
16230-96920 (113150)
Invested
$4.5
Value
β
PnL
-$4.5
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
Invested
$8.31
Value
β
PnL
-$8.31
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.3
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
β
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$3.04
Value
β
PnL
-$3.04
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down β $785
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Bonereaper
CTRUp β $0
peepeepoopoo24
Down β $59.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp β $0

wowitsamazing
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $29.92
wzbbb
CTRUp β $0
Hsilverbasher
Down β $36.11
devonpoll
CTRUp β $0