Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 57%
4 arb excluded
$3.8K
$619.24
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $563.78 | $641.16 | +$77.38 | 78% 9098-2615 (11713) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 35.7¢ | $345.44 | $967.47 | +$622.03 | 57% 6200-4745 (10945) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $432 | $470.35 | +$38.35 | 69% 1543-705 (2248) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $299.94 | $401.16 | +$101.22 | 58% 11584-8476 (20060) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $193.82 | $401.16 | +$207.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.4¢ | $106.12 | — | -$106.12 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 36.6¢ | $153.83 | $336.89 | +$183.06 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.8¢ | $25.46 | — | -$25.46 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 56.7¢ | $260.49 | $247.12 | -$13.37 | 58% 11711-8321 (20032) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 23.3¢ | $334.89 | $195.05 | -$139.84 | 54% 14241-12016 (26257) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.4¢ | $156.9 | $195.05 | +$38.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.3¢ | $177.99 | — | -$177.99 | |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $45.77 | — | -$45.77 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 30.1¢ | $57.72 | $167.4 | +$109.68 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $150.75 | $159.24 | +$8.49 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $66 | $159.24 | +$93.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.7¢ | $84.74 | — | -$84.74 | |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $190.46 | — | -$190.46 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $117.46 | $125.39 | +$7.93 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $69.54 | $125.39 | +$55.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65¢ | $47.92 | — | -$47.92 | |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $98.63 | — | -$98.63 | 65% 3645-1943 (5588) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $27.75 | $50 | +$26.25 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $44.26 | — | -$44.26 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $21.16 | — | -$21.16 | 64% 19321-10933 (30254) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $12.9 | $14.49 | +$1.59 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
NIULAI4Invested
$563.78
Value
$641.16
PnL
+$77.38
Record
78%
9098-2615 (11713)
Invested
$345.44
Value
$967.47
PnL
+$622.03
Record
57%
6200-4745 (10945)
Invested
$432
Value
$470.35
PnL
+$38.35
Record
69%
1543-705 (2248)
Invested
$299.94
Value
$401.16
PnL
+$101.22
Record
58%
11584-8476 (20060)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.83
Value
$336.89
PnL
+$183.06
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$25.46
Value
—
PnL
-$25.46
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
wowitsamazingInvested
$260.49
Value
$247.12
PnL
-$13.37
Record
58%
11711-8321 (20032)
Invested
$334.89
Value
$195.05
PnL
-$139.84
Record
54%
14241-12016 (26257)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.77
Value
—
PnL
-$45.77
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$57.72
Value
$167.4
PnL
+$109.68
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$150.75
Value
$159.24
PnL
+$8.49
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
Both legs:
ohioismCTRInvested
$190.46
Value
—
PnL
-$190.46
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
Invested
$117.46
Value
$125.39
PnL
+$7.93
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Both legs:
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$98.63
Value
—
PnL
-$98.63
Record
65%
3645-1943 (5588)
Invested
$27.75
Value
$50
PnL
+$26.25
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$44.26
Value
—
PnL
-$44.26
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$21.16
Value
—
PnL
-$21.16
Record
64%
19321-10933 (30254)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$14.49
PnL
+$1.59
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
NIULAI4
Down — $641.16
RLWG
Down — $967.47
asabovesobelow2
Down — $470.35
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Down — $336.89
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $247.12
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $167.4