Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$264.29
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$323.96 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 73.9¢ | $418.4 | $566.46 | +$148.06 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 62.9¢ | $193.78 | $292.16 | +$98.38 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 32.2¢ | $123.98 | $242.6 | +$118.62 | 56% 13639-10672 (24311) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Upavg 50.9¢ | $195.47 | — | -$195.47 | 54% 9622-8161 (17783) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $93.92 | $84.86 | -$9.06 | 58% 6311-4657 (10968) |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $136.99 | $58.99 | -$78 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $45.43 | $58.99 | +$13.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.9¢ | $91.56 | — | -$91.56 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.4¢ | $49.36 | — | -$49.36 | 54% 7032-5938 (12970) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $27.51 | $24.15 | -$3.36 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $16.77 | — | -$16.77 | 84% 31418-5931 (37349) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 91.7¢ | $22.69 | $15 | -$7.69 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $14.79 | $29 | +$14.21 | 14% 16230-96920 (113150) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $11.77 | $13.22 | +$1.45 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $9.64 | — | -$9.64 | 79% 29830-7781 (37611) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $20.45 | — | -$20.45 | 67% 14190-7009 (21199) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $9.25 | — | -$9.25 | 56% 15511-12385 (27896) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
Invested
$1,493.69
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$323.96
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Invested
$418.4
Value
$566.46
PnL
+$148.06
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$193.78
Value
$292.16
PnL
+$98.38
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Invested
$123.98
Value
$242.6
PnL
+$118.62
Record
56%
13639-10672 (24311)
Invested
$195.47
Value
—
PnL
-$195.47
Record
54%
9622-8161 (17783)
Invested
$93.92
Value
$84.86
PnL
-$9.06
Record
58%
6311-4657 (10968)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$136.99
Value
$58.99
PnL
-$78
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.36
Value
—
PnL
-$49.36
Record
54%
7032-5938 (12970)
Invested
$27.51
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$3.36
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$16.77
Value
—
PnL
-$16.77
Record
84%
31418-5931 (37349)
Invested
$22.69
Value
$15
PnL
-$7.69
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$14.79
Value
$29
PnL
+$14.21
Record
14%
16230-96920 (113150)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$11.77
Value
$13.22
PnL
+$1.45
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$9.64
Value
—
PnL
-$9.64
Record
79%
29830-7781 (37611)
Invested
$20.45
Value
—
PnL
-$20.45
Record
67%
14190-7009 (21199)
Invested
$9.25
Value
—
PnL
-$9.25
Record
56%
15511-12385 (27896)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
Down — $566.46
wzbbb
Down — $292.16
CrouchPredictions
Down — $242.6
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $84.86
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $24.15
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0