Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$287.17

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 100¢

+57% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,382

Combined PnL-$451.53

Up7 traders

Total Value$893.82

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL+$164.37

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$75.23	89% 55267-6960 (62227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$933.93
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$33.31	72% 50289-19256 (69545)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$659.17	$1.0K	+$383.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$672.6	$322.23	-$350.37
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67.1¢	$708.85	$640.53	-$68.32	56% 13608-10639 (24247)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 70.8¢	$722.21	$605.25	-$116.95	54% 6554-5505 (12059)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$684.28	$529.1	-$155.18	93% 20638-1667 (22305)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 63.9¢	$254.55	$269.15	+$14.6	56% 6967-5422 (12389)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 35.3¢	$351.25	$254.01	-$97.24	57% 33230-25572 (58802)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$231.85	$232.45	+$0.6	54% 9584-8140 (17724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.3¢	$141.38	$173.61	+$32.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$90.47	$58.84	-$31.64
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$259.16	$213.95	-$45.21	84% 29975-5909 (35884)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$129.81	$153.68	+$23.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$129.35	$60.27	-$69.07
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$168.87	$168.21	-$0.66	58% 6299-4641 (10940)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$83.96	$132.97	+$49.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$84.91	$35.24	-$49.67
MayorMamdani	Downavg 61.1¢	$126.06	$141.69	+$15.63	58% 16403-12023 (28426)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 13¢	$22.15	$126.65	+$104.5	52% 4739-4344 (9083)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$78.5	$59.89	-$18.61	77% 26158-7735 (33893)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$35.53	$54.28	+$18.75	61% 14100-8843 (22943)
AA aaa221	Downavg 68.5¢	$122.1	$52.58	-$30.55	67% 14122-6957 (21079)
BoneOhio	Downavg 67¢	$100.63	$38.3	-$62.33	78% 64372-17893 (82265)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$31.53	$37.29	+$5.76	78% 29872-8658 (38530)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$36.75	$34.67	-$2.08	59% 11292-7859 (19151)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 22.6¢	$19.78	$33.04	+$13.26	64% 20413-11416 (31829)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 53¢	$26.49	$24.74	-$1.75	72% 21621-8583 (30204)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$57.65	$22.24	-$35.41	56% 15211-12117 (27328)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 19.4¢	$57.47	$19.19	+$132.41	52% 16527-15335 (31862)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 77¢	$96.5	$18.12	+$6.64	68% 77784-37008 (114792)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 77¢	$10.74	$3.56	-$7.18	62% 42908-25873 (68781)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 67¢	$5	$1.9	-$3.1	85% 69294-12116 (81410)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,242.86

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$75.23

Record

89%

55267-6960 (62227)

Both legs:

Down$2,297.3953.2¢+$1.0K

Up$1,945.4745.2¢-$933.93

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Invested

$1,331.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$33.31

Record

72%

50289-19256 (69545)

Both legs:

Down$659.1748.4¢+$383.67

Up$672.649.1¢-$350.37

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$708.85

Value

$640.53

PnL

-$68.32

Record

56%

13608-10639 (24247)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$722.21

Value

$605.25

PnL

-$116.95

Record

54%

6554-5505 (12059)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$684.28

Value

$529.1

PnL

-$155.18

Record

93%

20638-1667 (22305)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$254.55

Value

$269.15

PnL

+$14.6

Record

56%

6967-5422 (12389)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$351.25

Value

$254.01

PnL

-$97.24

Record

57%

33230-25572 (58802)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.85

Value

$232.45

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

9584-8140 (17724)

Both legs:

Down$141.3862.3¢+$32.24

Up$90.4736.1¢-$31.64

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$259.16

Value

$213.95

PnL

-$45.21

Record

84%

29975-5909 (35884)

Both legs:

Down$129.8164.6¢+$23.87

Up$129.3550.4¢-$69.07

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$168.87

Value

$168.21

PnL

-$0.66

Record

58%

6299-4641 (10940)

Both legs:

Down$83.9648.3¢+$49.01

Up$84.9156.6¢-$49.67

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$126.06

Value

$141.69

PnL

+$15.63

Record

58%

16403-12023 (28426)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$22.15

Value

$126.65

PnL

+$104.5

Record

52%

4739-4344 (9083)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$78.5

Value

$59.89

PnL

-$18.61

Record

77%

26158-7735 (33893)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$35.53

Value

$54.28

PnL

+$18.75

Record

61%

14100-8843 (22943)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$122.1

Value

$52.58

PnL

-$30.55

Record

67%

14122-6957 (21079)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$100.63

Value

$38.3

PnL

-$62.33

Record

78%

64372-17893 (82265)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$31.53

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$5.76

Record

78%

29872-8658 (38530)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$36.75

Value

$34.67

PnL

-$2.08

Record

59%

11292-7859 (19151)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$13.26

Record

64%

20413-11416 (31829)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$26.49

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$1.75

Record

72%

21621-8583 (30204)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$57.65

Value

$22.24

PnL

-$35.41

Record

56%

15211-12117 (27328)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$57.47

Value

$19.19

PnL

+$132.41

Record

52%

16527-15335 (31862)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$96.5

Value

$18.12

PnL

+$6.64

Record

68%

77784-37008 (114792)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$10.74

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$7.18

Record

62%

42908-25873 (68781)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$3.1

Record

85%

69294-12116 (81410)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.