Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$321.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,910

Combined PnL-$288.29

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares290

Combined PnL-$32.91

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.5¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$407.21	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$430.32	54% 6366-5369 (11735)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$906.09	$1.2K	+$309.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$739.44	—	-$739.44
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$87.21	72% 48453-19245 (67698)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61¢	$640.92	$1.1K	+$410.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$497.66	—	-$497.66
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$664.23	$670.94	+$6.71	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 72.8¢	$549.2	$597.13	+$47.93	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 42.6¢	$125.12	$229.01	+$103.89	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.8¢	$175.95	$145.72	-$30.23	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 66.4¢	$135.06	$115.7	-$19.36	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
NIULAI4	Downavg 95.2¢	$118.06	$124	+$5.94	78% 9018-2585 (11603)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 90¢	$110.51	$82.7	-$17.91	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 87¢	$82.18	$94.46	+$12.28	78% 63103-17885 (80988)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$77.23	$70	-$7.23	58% 6297-4637 (10934)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 75¢	$29.47	$38.55	+$9.08	58% 11317-8292 (19609)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 65¢	$31.82	$25.69	-$6.13	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$20.7	$30.31	+$9.61	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 19.7¢	$44.5	—	+$13.98	52% 16519-15327 (31846)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 96¢	$19.5	$20.31	+$0.81	69% 1542-705 (2247)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 47¢	$16.03	$18.09	+$2.06	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 19.3¢	$14.58	—	-$14.58	61% 14067-8822 (22889)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 97¢	$4.9	$5.05	+$0.15	65% 3355-1789 (5144)
TM tmsd-test<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$4.48	$5.79	+$1.31	54% 14236-12011 (26247)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$21.73	—	-$21.73	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 39.2¢	$33.06	—	-$10.53	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	85% 67119-12101 (79220)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$4,043.59

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$407.21

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,645.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$430.32

Record

54%

6366-5369 (11735)

Both legs:

Down$906.0974.6¢+$309.12

Up$739.4438¢-$739.44

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,138.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$87.21

Record

72%

48453-19245 (67698)

Both legs:

Down$640.9261¢+$410.45

Up$497.6645.1¢-$497.66

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$664.23

Value

$670.94

PnL

+$6.71

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$549.2

Value

$597.13

PnL

+$47.93

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$125.12

Value

$229.01

PnL

+$103.89

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$175.95

Value

$145.72

PnL

-$30.23

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$135.06

Value

$115.7

PnL

-$19.36

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$118.06

Value

$124

PnL

+$5.94

Record

78%

9018-2585 (11603)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$110.51

Value

$82.7

PnL

-$17.91

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$82.18

Value

$94.46

PnL

+$12.28

Record

78%

63103-17885 (80988)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$77.23

Value

$70

PnL

-$7.23

Record

58%

6297-4637 (10934)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$29.47

Value

$38.55

PnL

+$9.08

Record

58%

11317-8292 (19609)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$31.82

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$6.13

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$20.7

Value

$30.31

PnL

+$9.61

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

—

PnL

+$13.98

Record

52%

16519-15327 (31846)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$20.31

PnL

+$0.81

Record

69%

1542-705 (2247)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$16.03

Value

$18.09

PnL

+$2.06

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$14.58

Value

—

PnL

-$14.58

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

65%

3355-1789 (5144)

tmsd-test<$100

Down

Invested

$4.48

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$1.31

Record

54%

14236-12011 (26247)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$21.73

Value

—

PnL

-$21.73

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$33.06

Value

—

PnL

-$10.53

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

85%

67119-12101 (79220)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1727aaef...45c3a5

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792982700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $3.6K

-$407.21

aswfadq1555

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$430.32

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$87.21

hoodquant

Down — $670.94

+$6.71

CrouchPredictions

Down — $597.13

+$47.93

uninformedfloww

Down — $229.01

+$103.89

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $145.72

-$30.23

wzbbb

Down — $115.7

-$19.36

NIULAI4

Down — $124

+$5.94

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $82.7

-$17.91

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