Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$265.47

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,374

Combined PnL-$47.75

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$217.72

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$561.71	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.1¢	$861.03	—	-$861.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$738.36	$1.0K	+$299.32
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 63.3¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$107.11	54% 6366-5369 (11735)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$873.4	$882.99	+$9.59	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$881.07	$733.03	-$148.04	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$382.04	$733.03	+$350.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$499.04	—	-$499.04
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$838.68	$449.39	-$389.29	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$592.69	—	-$592.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$245.99	$449.39	+$203.4
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$411.03	$228.32	-$182.71	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.1¢	$294	—	-$294
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$117.03	$228.32	+$111.3
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$310.98	$236	-$74.98	72% 48453-19245 (67698)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.6¢	$159.63	$236	+$76.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$151.35	—	-$151.35
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$166.37	$165.92	-$0.45	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$91.93	$165.92	+$73.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$74.44	—	-$74.44
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$180.47	$170	-$10.48	58% 6297-4637 (10934)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$90.6	$170	+$79.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$89.87	—	-$89.87
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$73.11	$74.95	+$1.84	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$56.72	$53.93	-$2.8	61% 14067-8822 (22889)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.5¢	$17.51	$53.93	+$36.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$39.21	—	-$39.21
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$97.14	—	-$97.14	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819ARB<$100	Upavg 86¢	$94.65	$33.28	-$61.37	46% 349-402 (751)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$86	—	-$86
└ Down leg	Downavg 26¢	$8.65	$33.28	+$24.63
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$28.63	—	-$28.63	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$62.4	$66.58	+$4.18	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$37.89	—	-$37.89	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 16.8¢	$12.73	$35	+$37.52	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$94.07	—	-$42.25	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$7.8	—	-$7.8	60% 16070-10630 (26700)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.09	$8.17	+$4.09	67% 14977-7366 (22343)
BE beeemw<$100	Downavg 70¢	$5	$7.14	+$2.14	78% 242-69 (311)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$2.16	—	-$2.16	59% 11164-7698 (18862)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$1.85	—	-$1.85	54% 14236-12011 (26247)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	—	—	+$0	52% 16519-15327 (31846)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,599.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$561.71

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

Both legs:

Up$861.0367.1¢-$861.03

Down$738.3671.2¢+$299.32

aswfadq1555

Down

Invested

$1,406.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$107.11

Record

54%

6366-5369 (11735)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$873.4

Value

$882.99

PnL

+$9.59

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$881.07

Value

$733.03

PnL

-$148.04

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Both legs:

Down$382.0452.1¢+$350.99

Up$499.0458.5¢-$499.04

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$838.68

Value

$449.39

PnL

-$389.29

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Both legs:

Up$592.6971¢-$592.69

Down$245.9954.7¢+$203.4

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$411.03

Value

$228.32

PnL

-$182.71

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

Both legs:

Up$29482.1¢-$294

Down$117.0351.3¢+$111.3

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$310.98

Value

$236

PnL

-$74.98

Record

72%

48453-19245 (67698)

Both legs:

Down$159.6367.6¢+$76.37

Up$151.3558.1¢-$151.35

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.37

Value

$165.92

PnL

-$0.45

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Down$91.9355.4¢+$73.99

Up$74.4441.1¢-$74.44

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180.47

Value

$170

PnL

-$10.48

Record

58%

6297-4637 (10934)

Both legs:

Down$90.653.3¢+$79.39

Up$89.8760¢-$89.87

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$73.11

Value

$74.95

PnL

+$1.84

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$56.72

Value

$53.93

PnL

-$2.8

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

Both legs:

Down$17.5132.5¢+$36.42

Up$39.2163.3¢-$39.21

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$97.14

Value

—

PnL

-$97.14

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819ARB<$100

Invested

$94.65

Value

$33.28

PnL

-$61.37

Record

46%

349-402 (751)

Both legs:

Up$8686¢-$86

Down$8.6526¢+$24.63

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$28.63

Value

—

PnL

-$28.63

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$62.4

Value

$66.58

PnL

+$4.18

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$37.89

Value

—

PnL

-$37.89

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$35

PnL

+$37.52

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$94.07

Value

—

PnL

-$42.25

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

—

PnL

-$7.8

Record

60%

16070-10630 (26700)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$4.09

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$4.09

Record

67%

14977-7366 (22343)

beeemw<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$2.14

Record

78%

242-69 (311)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

—

PnL

-$2.16

Record

59%

11164-7698 (18862)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

—

PnL

-$1.85

Record

54%

14236-12011 (26247)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

16519-15327 (31846)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6b328c61...8a140f

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792977300

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$561.71

aswfadq1555

Down — $1.3K

-$107.11

hoodquant

Down — $882.99

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Arbitrage — excluded

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Down — $74.95

+$1.84

Trade on Polymarket