Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$453.04

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,440

Combined PnL+$82.81

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,847

Combined PnL-$535.85

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$314.74	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$2.0K	+$889.34
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$346.05	54% 5994-5097 (11091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$824.51	—	-$824.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.2¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$478.45
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$639.75	$609.76	-$30	70% 44729-19033 (63762)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$313.35	—	-$313.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$326.4	$609.76	+$283.36
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$24.65	93% 20539-1653 (22192)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 47.6¢	$1.1K	—	-$78.7	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Downavg 19.1¢	$114.05	—	-$114.05	53% 1892-1704 (3596)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$358.41	$352.92	-$5.49	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$92.29	—	-$92.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$266.12	$352.92	+$86.8
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 72¢	$181.88	$209.3	+$27.43	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.2¢	$31.23	—	-$31.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$150.65	$209.3	+$58.65
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$198.6	$188.11	-$10.49	58% 6169-4535 (10704)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$65.19	—	-$65.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.9¢	$133.41	$188.11	+$54.7
TH thesidehustleCTR	Downavg 70.5¢	$141.59	—	-$141.59	54% 9551-8122 (17673)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$273.29	$263.57	-$9.72	58% 16353-11988 (28341)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.9¢	$213.21	$263.57	+$50.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.5¢	$60.08	—	-$60.08
JO JocJoCTR<$100	Downavg 17.9¢	$22.79	—	-$22.79	51% 909-874 (1783)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$40.5	—	-$40.5	56% 15141-12065 (27206)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$68.96	$62.51	-$6.45	76% 24812-7703 (32515)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 78¢	$56.45	—	-$56.45	68% 75669-35734 (111403)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$39	—	-$39	60% 10605-7189 (17794)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 71.2¢	$38.57	$34.17	-$4.39	61% 14030-8793 (22823)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 28.1¢	$24.18	—	-$24.18	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 60.1¢	$75.71	$125.91	+$50.2	58% 11123-8150 (19273)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$15.29	—	-$15.29	71% 49577-20345 (69922)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 77¢	$53.9	$70	+$16.1	57% 33114-25464 (58578)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 77¢	$22.02	$25.09	+$3.07	66% 14228-7218 (21446)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$12.53	$17.92	+$5.4	84% 61854-12050 (73904)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	71% 20772-8504 (29276)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	51% 4438-4219 (8657)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,356.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$314.74

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Both legs:

Down$1,204.0865¢$-1.2K

Up$1,152.2556.4¢+$889.34

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$2,274.7

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$346.05

Record

54%

5994-5097 (11091)

Both legs:

Down$824.5169¢-$824.51

Up$1,450.1975.2¢+$478.45

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Invested

$639.75

Value

$609.76

PnL

-$30

Record

70%

44729-19033 (63762)

Both legs:

Down$313.3553.2¢-$313.35

Up$326.453.5¢+$283.36

hoodquant

Invested

$2,054.35

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$24.65

Record

93%

20539-1653 (22192)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,058.88

Value

—

PnL

-$78.7

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Down

Invested

$114.05

Value

—

PnL

-$114.05

Record

53%

1892-1704 (3596)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$358.41

Value

$352.92

PnL

-$5.49

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

Both legs:

Down$92.2924¢-$92.29

Up$266.1275.4¢+$86.8

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$181.88

Value

$209.3

PnL

+$27.43

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

Both legs:

Down$31.2319.2¢-$31.23

Up$150.6572¢+$58.65

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$198.6

Value

$188.11

PnL

-$10.49

Record

58%

6169-4535 (10704)

Both legs:

Down$65.1943.2¢-$65.19

Up$133.4170.9¢+$54.7

thesidehustleCTR

Down

Invested

$141.59

Value

—

PnL

-$141.59

Record

54%

9551-8122 (17673)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$273.29

Value

$263.57

PnL

-$9.72

Record

58%

16353-11988 (28341)

Both legs:

Up$213.2180.9¢+$50.36

Down$60.0871.5¢-$60.08

JocJoCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.79

Value

—

PnL

-$22.79

Record

51%

909-874 (1783)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.5

Value

—

PnL

-$40.5

Record

56%

15141-12065 (27206)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$68.96

Value

$62.51

PnL

-$6.45

Record

76%

24812-7703 (32515)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.45

Value

—

PnL

-$56.45

Record

68%

75669-35734 (111403)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39

Value

—

PnL

-$39

Record

60%

10605-7189 (17794)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$38.57

Value

$34.17

PnL

-$4.39

Record

61%

14030-8793 (22823)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.18

Value

—

PnL

-$24.18

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$75.71

Value

$125.91

PnL

+$50.2

Record

58%

11123-8150 (19273)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.29

Value

—

PnL

-$15.29

Record

71%

49577-20345 (69922)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$53.9

Value

$70

PnL

+$16.1

Record

57%

33114-25464 (58578)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$22.02

Value

$25.09

PnL

+$3.07

Record

66%

14228-7218 (21446)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$12.53

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$5.4

Record

84%

61854-12050 (73904)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

71%

20772-8504 (29276)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

51%

4438-4219 (8657)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 21 top traders (48%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1f28e690...6bd957

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792973700

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$30

hoodquant

Up — $2.1K

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Down — $0