Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$480.93

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,571

Combined PnL+$836.39

Down4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,485

Combined PnL-$355.45

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 96.7¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$6.87	81% 140-33 (173)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 42.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$117.93	60% 9464-6262 (15726)
AS asdaasda	Upavg 66.2¢	$798.53	$1.2K	+$392.85	55% 919-748 (1667)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Upavg 80.5¢	$760.07	$890	+$129.93	57% 1254-932 (2186)
JO JocJo	Upavg 72.3¢	$617.01	$825.24	+$208.24	51% 901-872 (1773)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 46.5¢	$382.61	$773.3	+$390.69	60% 10564-7080 (17644)
TM tmsd-test	Upavg 86.2¢	$1.7K	$603.1	-$296.78	53% 7312-6500 (13812)
IS isawfuture	Upavg 75¢	$134.16	$151.85	+$41.5	49% 162-167 (329)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 94.3¢	$114.09	$86.42	-$27.67	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR	Downavg 37.9¢	$147.21	$79.05	-$68.16	62% 40770-24941 (65711)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$86.2	$64.49	-$21.71	56% 15000-11947 (26947)
AA aaa221	Upavg 71.5¢	$355.29	$59.39	+$3.79	67% 13654-6785 (20439)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Upavg 96.8¢	$30.96	$31.68	+$0.72	54% 5974-5085 (11059)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Downavg 13.8¢	$147.66	$10.67	-$147.66	52% 232-213 (445)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$4,904.9

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$6.87

Record

81%

140-33 (173)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,773.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$117.93

Record

60%

9464-6262 (15726)

asdaasda

Invested

$798.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$392.85

Record

55%

919-748 (1667)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Invested

$760.07

Value

$890

PnL

+$129.93

Record

57%

1254-932 (2186)

JocJo

Invested

$617.01

Value

$825.24

PnL

+$208.24

Record

51%

901-872 (1773)

wowitsamazing

Invested

$382.61

Value

$773.3

PnL

+$390.69

Record

60%

10564-7080 (17644)

tmsd-test

Invested

$1,685.66

Value

$603.1

PnL

-$296.78

Record

53%

7312-6500 (13812)

isawfuture

Invested

$134.16

Value

$151.85

PnL

+$41.5

Record

49%

162-167 (329)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$114.09

Value

$86.42

PnL

-$27.67

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR

Down

Invested

$147.21

Value

$79.05

PnL

-$68.16

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.2

Value

$64.49

PnL

-$21.71

Record

56%

15000-11947 (26947)

aaa221

Invested

$355.29

Value

$59.39

PnL

+$3.79

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

aswfadq1555<$100

Invested

$30.96

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

5974-5085 (11059)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Down

Invested

$147.66

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$147.66

Record

52%

232-213 (445)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.