Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 87%
4 arb excluded
$5.2K
$74.03
Smart Money Signal
15 of 18 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$4.08 | 79% 28555-7400 (35955) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $464.39 | $507.56 | +$43.17 | 60% 9459-6254 (15713) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22¢ | $162.54 | — | -$162.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.5¢ | $301.85 | $507.56 | +$205.71 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $99.36 | $99 | -$0.36 | 56% 6913-5368 (12281) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.4¢ | $24.45 | — | -$24.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.7¢ | $74.91 | $99 | +$24.09 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $88.8 | $102.8 | +$14 | 69% 69333-31661 (100994) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.2¢ | $65 | $102.8 | +$37.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.6¢ | $23.8 | — | -$23.8 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $64.82 | $66.58 | +$1.76 | 56% 13533-10550 (24083) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.2¢ | $37.43 | $66.58 | +$29.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.8¢ | $27.39 | — | -$27.39 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $56.11 | $62.57 | +$6.46 | 76% 24325-7635 (31960) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $41.37 | $45.61 | +$4.24 | 62% 13930-8709 (22639) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $28.46 | $53.7 | +$25.24 | 53% 7311-6497 (13808) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $27.15 | $40.2 | +$13.05 | 57% 32475-24922 (57397) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $25.5 | $35.51 | +$10.01 | 66% 13816-7193 (21009) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $22.58 | $25.09 | +$2.51 | 77% 26609-8159 (34768) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $18.1 | $24.51 | +$6.41 | 63% 19239-11265 (30504) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $10.3 | $10 | -$0.3 | 58% 16263-11884 (28147) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $17.39 | $21.47 | +$4.08 | 58% 11078-8124 (19202) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $9.12 | $20.05 | +$10.93 | 70% 28775-12449 (41224) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $24 | $20 | -$2.4 | 67% 13622-6770 (20392) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 59% 14819-10330 (25149) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.32 | $12.44 | +$0.12 | 62% 40754-24930 (65684) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 56% 14989-11933 (26922) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | — | — | +$0 | 71% 47656-19807 (67463) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 23% 13829-47170 (60999) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 16054-14845 (30899) |
Invested
$4,070.93
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$4.08
Record
79%
28555-7400 (35955)
Invested
$464.39
Value
$507.56
PnL
+$43.17
Record
60%
9459-6254 (15713)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.36
Value
$99
PnL
-$0.36
Record
56%
6913-5368 (12281)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.8
Value
$102.8
PnL
+$14
Record
69%
69333-31661 (100994)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.82
Value
$66.58
PnL
+$1.76
Record
56%
13533-10550 (24083)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.11
Value
$62.57
PnL
+$6.46
Record
76%
24325-7635 (31960)
Invested
$41.37
Value
$45.61
PnL
+$4.24
Record
62%
13930-8709 (22639)
Invested
$28.46
Value
$53.7
PnL
+$25.24
Record
53%
7311-6497 (13808)
Invested
$27.15
Value
$40.2
PnL
+$13.05
Record
57%
32475-24922 (57397)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$35.51
PnL
+$10.01
Record
66%
13816-7193 (21009)
ohioism<$100Invested
$22.58
Value
$25.09
PnL
+$2.51
Record
77%
26609-8159 (34768)
Invested
$18.1
Value
$24.51
PnL
+$6.41
Record
63%
19239-11265 (30504)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.3
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
16263-11884 (28147)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$21.47
PnL
+$4.08
Record
58%
11078-8124 (19202)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$10.93
Record
70%
28775-12449 (41224)
Invested
$24
Value
$20
PnL
-$2.4
Record
67%
13622-6770 (20392)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
59%
14819-10330 (25149)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.32
Value
$12.44
PnL
+$0.12
Record
62%
40754-24930 (65684)
Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
56%
14989-11933 (26922)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
71%
47656-19807 (67463)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
13829-47170 (60999)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
16054-14845 (30899)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.1K
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdaefef
Down — $62.57
asidjasiodja
Down — $45.61
tmsd-test
Down — $53.7
uninformedfloww
Down — $40.2
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $35.51