Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 56%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.8K

Combined PnL

$-30.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 36 top traders (53%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares29,799

Combined PnL$-9.7K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares31,798

Combined PnL$-20.6K

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883	Downavg 96.1¢	$36.8K	$24.4K	$-12.4K	— 10-7 (17)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Upavg 67.9¢	$8.1K	—	$-8.1K	52% 222-202 (424)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100	Upavg 64.8¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$223.35	81% 130-30 (160)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.8¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$1.0K	$2.7K	+$1.7K
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$4.6K	$1.5K	$-3.1K	55% 636-510 (1146)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$116.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$3.2K	—	$-3.2K
RL RLWGARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$3.1K	$1.0K	$-2.1K	51% 4110-3965 (8075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.2¢	$619.7	$1.0K	+$409.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529CTR	Upavg 60.7¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	54% 827-706 (1533)
BossgirlCTR	Upavg 62.8¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	54% 3678-3080 (6758)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$961.37	$971.08	+$9.71	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 52.7¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K	53% 1870-1689 (3559)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144	Downavg 38.6¢	$258.74	$654.23	+$395.49	70% 42131-17757 (59888)
AR arbfinder2026CTR	Upavg 67.6¢	$662.69	—	-$662.69	55% 4818-3895 (8713)
JO JocJoCTR	Upavg 55.4¢	$944.69	—	-$944.69	51% 896-863 (1759)
AS asdaasdaCTR	Upavg 66.1¢	$594.42	—	-$594.42	55% 914-741 (1655)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR	Upavg 75.3¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	57% 1249-928 (2177)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819	Downavg 39.8¢	$637.47	$1.6K	+$963.57	46% 325-382 (707)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202eCTR	Upavg 54.5¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	53% 1539-1341 (2880)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$410.02	$450.34	+$40.32	53% 7303-6492 (13795)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.8¢	$179.05	$450.34	+$271.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$230.97	—	-$230.97
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 33.3¢	$160.6	$468.97	+$308.37	87% 47582-6858 (54440)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Upavg 66.8¢	$448.73	—	-$448.73	57% 4941-3668 (8609)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$231.09	$383.2	+$152.11	58% 16229-11843 (28072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$224.53	$383.2	+$158.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.2¢	$6.56	—	-$6.56
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR	Upavg 65.9¢	$395.46	—	-$395.46	54% 3299-2835 (6134)
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR	Upavg 67.7¢	$393.74	—	-$393.74	50% 615-625 (1240)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$909.76	$92.98	-$816.78	65% 3151-1671 (4822)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.8¢	$836.98	—	-$836.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.3¢	$72.78	$92.98	+$20.2
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR	Upavg 66.2¢	$306.02	—	-$306.02	54% 5730-4900 (10630)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 51.4¢	$221.01	$430	+$208.99	56% 13515-10540 (24055)

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Down

Invested

$36,770.76

Value

$24.4K

PnL

$-12.4K

Record

—

10-7 (17)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Invested

$8,083.71

Value

—

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

52%

222-202 (424)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489ARB<$100

Invested

$2,951.81

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$223.35

Record

81%

130-30 (160)

Both legs:

Up$1,944.9364.8¢$-1.9K

Down$1,006.8836.9¢+$1.7K

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$4,634.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

55%

636-510 (1146)

Both legs:

Down$1,420.5292.4¢+$116.65

Up$3,213.9259.8¢$-3.2K

RLWGARB<$100

Invested

$3,119.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

51%

4110-3965 (8075)

Both legs:

Down$619.760.2¢+$409.82

Up$2,499.862.8¢$-2.5K

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529CTR

Invested

$1,884.08

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

827-706 (1533)

BossgirlCTR

Invested

$1,570.62

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

3678-3080 (6758)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$961.37

Value

$971.08

PnL

+$9.71

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$1,214.48

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1870-1689 (3559)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down

Invested

$258.74

Value

$654.23

PnL

+$395.49

Record

70%

42131-17757 (59888)

arbfinder2026CTR

Invested

$662.69

Value

—

PnL

-$662.69

Record

55%

4818-3895 (8713)

JocJoCTR

Invested

$944.69

Value

—

PnL

-$944.69

Record

51%

896-863 (1759)

asdaasdaCTR

Invested

$594.42

Value

—

PnL

-$594.42

Record

55%

914-741 (1655)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5ghCTR

Invested

$2,066.5

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

57%

1249-928 (2177)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down

Invested

$637.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$963.57

Record

46%

325-382 (707)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202eCTR

Invested

$1,400.88

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1539-1341 (2880)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$410.02

Value

$450.34

PnL

+$40.32

Record

53%

7303-6492 (13795)

Both legs:

Down$179.0539.8¢+$271.29

Up$230.9742.1¢-$230.97

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$160.6

Value

$468.97

PnL

+$308.37

Record

87%

47582-6858 (54440)

berlinskiesCTR

Invested

$448.73

Value

—

PnL

-$448.73

Record

57%

4941-3668 (8609)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.09

Value

$383.2

PnL

+$152.11

Record

58%

16229-11843 (28072)

Both legs:

Down$224.5358.6¢+$158.67

Up$6.561.2¢-$6.56

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR

Invested

$395.46

Value

—

PnL

-$395.46

Record

54%

3299-2835 (6134)

0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR

Invested

$393.74

Value

—

PnL

-$393.74

Record

50%

615-625 (1240)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$909.76

Value

$92.98

PnL

-$816.78

Record

65%

3151-1671 (4822)

Both legs:

Up$836.9865.8¢-$836.98

Down$72.7878.3¢+$20.2

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR

Invested

$306.02

Value

—

PnL

-$306.02

Record

54%

5730-4900 (10630)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$221.01

Value

$430

PnL

+$208.99

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 36 top traders (53%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe9981200...6d4f6c

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792951200

Traders in this Market

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Down — $24.4K

$-12.4K

oxe78sh4w98

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.1K

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Arbitrage — excluded

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

RLWG

Arbitrage — excluded

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Up — $0

Bossgirl

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $971.08

+$9.71

0xdc27...afdd9a

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.2K

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

Down — $654.23

+$395.49

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