Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$145.9K
$53.2K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 45 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883 | Downavg 45¢ | $18.7K | $41.6K | +$22.9K | — 10-7 (17) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $15.0K | $26.1K | +$11.1K | 52% 222-202 (424) |
31 3123123121313 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $8.2K | $13.3K | +$5.1K | 55% 636-510 (1146) |
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $5.2K | $7.3K | +$2.1K | 54% 827-706 (1533) |
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e | Downavg 60.5¢ | $5.0K | $8.2K | +$3.2K | 53% 1539-1341 (2880) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Downavg 75.2¢ | $5.0K | $6.7K | +$1.7K | 57% 1249-928 (2177) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 60.4¢ | $2.8K | $4.5K | +$1.7K | 53% 1870-1689 (3559) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176 | Downavg 63¢ | $2.7K | $3.4K | +$676.08 | 54% 5730-4900 (10630) |
JO JocJo | Downavg 60.7¢ | $2.2K | $3.4K | +$1.2K | 51% 896-863 (1759) |
RL RLWG | Downavg 71.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.8K | +$270.52 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 69.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.8K | +$869.93 | 54% 3678-3080 (6758) |
AS asdaasda | Downavg 62.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.5K | +$452 | 55% 914-741 (1655) |
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $1.9K | $2.5K | +$562.93 | 54% 3299-2835 (6134) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$25.16 | 79% 28217-7375 (35592) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.49 | 79% 54764-14368 (69132) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$317 | 81% 130-30 (160) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$70.93 | 93% 20381-1637 (22018) |
AS asabovesobelow2 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.9K | +$506.25 | 69% 1528-698 (2226) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 39.7¢ | $736.24 | $1.8K | +$1.1K | 60% 10550-7003 (17553) |
BE berlinskies | Downavg 84.9¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$326.53 | 57% 4941-3668 (8609) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 58.9¢ | $814.04 | $1.3K | +$489.29 | 65% 3151-1671 (4822) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 88.4¢ | $856.76 | $948.98 | +$92.22 | 56% 6895-5360 (12255) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 91.5¢ | $961.15 | $842.94 | -$118.21 | 56% 13515-10540 (24055) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 26.9¢ | $1.4K | — | -$841.87 | 53% 7303-6492 (13795) |
AR arbfinder2026 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $732.12 | $934.73 | +$202.61 | 55% 4818-3895 (8713) |
Invested
$18,728.47
Value
$41.6K
PnL
+$22.9K
Record
—
10-7 (17)
Invested
$14,972.03
Value
$26.1K
PnL
+$11.1K
Record
52%
222-202 (424)
Invested
$8,247.62
Value
$13.3K
PnL
+$5.1K
Record
55%
636-510 (1146)
Invested
$5,182.34
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
54%
827-706 (1533)
Invested
$4,964.36
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$3.2K
Record
53%
1539-1341 (2880)
Invested
$5,009.29
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
57%
1249-928 (2177)
Invested
$2,777.97
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
53%
1870-1689 (3559)
Invested
$2,734.57
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$676.08
Record
54%
5730-4900 (10630)
Invested
$2,157.67
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
51%
896-863 (1759)
Invested
$2,534.65
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$270.52
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
BossgirlInvested
$1,958.67
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$869.93
Record
54%
3678-3080 (6758)
Invested
$2,050.36
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$452
Record
55%
914-741 (1655)
Invested
$1,938.74
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$562.93
Record
54%
3299-2835 (6134)
Invested
$2,490.86
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$25.16
Record
79%
28217-7375 (35592)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,127.72
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.49
Record
79%
54764-14368 (69132)
Invested
$1,782.98
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$317
Record
81%
130-30 (160)
Invested
$2,003.07
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$70.93
Record
93%
20381-1637 (22018)
Invested
$1,394
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$506.25
Record
69%
1528-698 (2226)
wowitsamazingInvested
$736.24
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
60%
10550-7003 (17553)
Invested
$1,834.81
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$326.53
Record
57%
4941-3668 (8609)
AtomforgeInvested
$814.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$489.29
Record
65%
3151-1671 (4822)
Invested
$856.76
Value
$948.98
PnL
+$92.22
Record
56%
6895-5360 (12255)
Invested
$961.15
Value
$842.94
PnL
-$118.21
Record
56%
13515-10540 (24055)
Invested
$1,434.73
Value
—
PnL
-$841.87
Record
53%
7303-6492 (13795)
Invested
$732.12
Value
$934.73
PnL
+$202.61
Record
55%
4818-3895 (8713)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883
Down — $41.6K
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $26.1K
3123123121313
Down — $13.3K
0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529
Down — $7.3K
0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e
Down — $8.2K
0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh
Down — $6.7K
0xdc27...afdd9a
Down — $4.5K
0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176
Down — $3.4K
JocJo
Down — $3.4K
RLWG
Down — $2.8K