Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Up 50%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$504.9
Smart Money Signal
15 of 30 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $683.96 | $760.73 | +$76.77 | 60% 9446-6238 (15684) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.1¢ | $226.55 | — | -$226.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.1¢ | $457.42 | $760.73 | +$303.31 | |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 32.5¢ | $209 | — | -$209 | 60% 10550-7003 (17553) |
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529CTR | Downavg 36¢ | $191.25 | — | -$191.25 | 54% 827-706 (1533) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 64.9¢ | $223.97 | $261.46 | +$37.49 | 53% 7303-6492 (13795) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.9¢ | $169.76 | $261.46 | +$91.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $54.21 | — | -$54.21 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 91.1¢ | $339.99 | $368 | +$28.01 | 56% 6895-5360 (12255) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 49.8¢ | $184.94 | $362.63 | +$177.69 | 56% 13515-10540 (24055) |
AS asdaasdaCTR | Downavg 37.5¢ | $127.67 | — | -$127.67 | 55% 914-741 (1655) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.6¢ | $86.97 | — | -$86.97 | 54% 5730-4900 (10630) |
AR arbfinder2026CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7¢ | $67.87 | — | -$67.87 | 55% 4818-3895 (8713) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.5¢ | $75.25 | — | -$75.25 | 69% 1528-698 (2226) |
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.1¢ | $54.13 | — | -$54.13 | 54% 3299-2835 (6134) |
 AtomforgeCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.2¢ | $62.95 | — | -$62.95 | 65% 3151-1671 (4822) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $62.91 | $103.27 | +$40.36 | 55% 38143-31228 (69371) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $51.01 | $103.27 | +$52.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.3¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | |
RL RLWG | Upavg 37.8¢ | $48.98 | $121.07 | +$72.09 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 55.2¢ | $70.9 | $128.39 | +$57.49 | 52% 16033-14835 (30868) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $50.19 | $65.57 | +$15.38 | 58% 6156-4519 (10675) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $33.05 | $65.57 | +$32.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.6¢ | $17.14 | — | -$17.14 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $46.59 | $99.98 | +$53.39 | 58% 16229-11843 (28072) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 58.9¢ | $85.28 | $74.49 | +$31.63 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
JO JocJoCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $27.3 | — | -$27.3 | 51% 896-863 (1759) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $43.92 | $49.69 | +$5.77 | 76% 24117-7611 (31728) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $23.56 | — | -$23.56 | 54% 5965-5079 (11044) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $55.75 | $56.31 | +$0.56 | 93% 20381-1637 (22018) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 79.5¢ | $43.81 | $51.19 | +$7.38 | 62% 13878-8687 (22565) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $17.35 | — | -$17.35 | 53% 1870-1689 (3559) |
0X 0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7eCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $15.4 | — | -$15.4 | 50% 615-625 (1240) |
Invested
$683.96
Value
$760.73
PnL
+$76.77
Record
60%
9446-6238 (15684)
Both legs:
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$209
Value
—
PnL
-$209
Record
60%
10550-7003 (17553)
Invested
$191.25
Value
—
PnL
-$191.25
Record
54%
827-706 (1533)
Invested
$223.97
Value
$261.46
PnL
+$37.49
Record
53%
7303-6492 (13795)
Both legs:
Invested
$339.99
Value
$368
PnL
+$28.01
Record
56%
6895-5360 (12255)
Invested
$184.94
Value
$362.63
PnL
+$177.69
Record
56%
13515-10540 (24055)
Invested
$127.67
Value
—
PnL
-$127.67
Record
55%
914-741 (1655)
Invested
$86.97
Value
—
PnL
-$86.97
Record
54%
5730-4900 (10630)
Invested
$67.87
Value
—
PnL
-$67.87
Record
55%
4818-3895 (8713)
Invested
$75.25
Value
—
PnL
-$75.25
Record
69%
1528-698 (2226)
Invested
$54.13
Value
—
PnL
-$54.13
Record
54%
3299-2835 (6134)
AtomforgeCTR<$100Invested
$62.95
Value
—
PnL
-$62.95
Record
65%
3151-1671 (4822)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$103.27
PnL
+$40.36
Record
55%
38143-31228 (69371)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.98
Value
$121.07
PnL
+$72.09
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
Invested
$70.9
Value
$128.39
PnL
+$57.49
Record
52%
16033-14835 (30868)
Invested
$50.19
Value
$65.57
PnL
+$15.38
Record
58%
6156-4519 (10675)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$46.59
Value
$99.98
PnL
+$53.39
Record
58%
16229-11843 (28072)
Invested
$85.28
Value
$74.49
PnL
+$31.63
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
$27.3
Value
—
PnL
-$27.3
Record
51%
896-863 (1759)
Invested
$43.92
Value
$49.69
PnL
+$5.77
Record
76%
24117-7611 (31728)
Invested
$23.56
Value
—
PnL
-$23.56
Record
54%
5965-5079 (11044)
Invested
$55.75
Value
$56.31
PnL
+$0.56
Record
93%
20381-1637 (22018)
Invested
$43.81
Value
$51.19
PnL
+$7.38
Record
62%
13878-8687 (22565)
Invested
$17.35
Value
—
PnL
-$17.35
Record
53%
1870-1689 (3559)
Invested
$15.4
Value
—
PnL
-$15.4
Record
50%
615-625 (1240)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529
CTRDown — $0
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Up — $368
CrouchPredictions
Up — $362.63
asdaasda
CTRDown — $0
0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176
CTRDown — $0
arbfinder2026
CTRDown — $0
asabovesobelow2
CTRDown — $0