Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.8K

Combined PnL

$28.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$58.2K

Total Shares58,216

Combined PnL+$31.3K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,647

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883	Downavg 37.9¢	$6.7K	$17.6K	+$10.9K	— 10-7 (17)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 47.9¢	$4.0K	$7.9K	+$4.0K	55% 636-510 (1146)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 44.3¢	$5.3K	$12.0K	+$6.7K	52% 222-202 (424)
RL RLWG	Downavg 54.8¢	$3.0K	$4.6K	+$1.6K	51% 4110-3965 (8075)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 45¢	$1.2K	$2.5K	+$1.4K	53% 1870-1689 (3559)
JO JocJo	Downavg 43.3¢	$769.89	$1.6K	+$875	51% 896-863 (1759)
Bossgirl	Downavg 48.1¢	$670.97	$1.4K	+$724.02	54% 3678-3080 (6758)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR	Upavg 66.6¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	46% 325-382 (707)
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529	Downavg 48.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$117	54% 827-706 (1533)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$665.07	$736	+$145.66	53% 7303-6492 (13795)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$367	—	-$369.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$220.8	$736	+$515.2
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Downavg 58.1¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$737.53	53% 1539-1341 (2880)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 61.4¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$706.43	57% 1249-928 (2177)
Atomforge	Downavg 39.9¢	$352.02	$650.59	+$298.57	65% 3151-1671 (4822)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 35¢	$222.74	$590	+$367.26	81% 130-30 (160)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 18.4¢	$546.71	$2.7K	+$2.2K	60% 10550-7003 (17553)
AS asabovesobelow2ARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$337.25	$446.96	+$109.71	69% 1528-698 (2226)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.6¢	$145.5	$446.96	+$301.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$191.75	—	-$191.75
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176ARB<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$333.69	$310.69	-$23	54% 5730-4900 (10630)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$298.28	—	-$298.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.4¢	$35.41	$310.69	+$275.28
AR arbfinder2026	Downavg 62.3¢	$602.21	$909.09	+$306.88	55% 4818-3895 (8713)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 53.7¢	$326.71	—	-$326.71	60% 9446-6238 (15684)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 59.4¢	$427.53	—	-$427.53	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 53¢	$252.5	—	-$252.5	71% 20609-8429 (29038)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$334.76	$302.17	-$32.59	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$102.79	$302.17	+$199.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$231.97	—	-$231.97
AS asdaasdaARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$297.23	$225.11	-$72.12	55% 914-741 (1655)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.2¢	$43.16	$225.11	+$181.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$254.07	—	-$254.07
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$317.95	$300	-$17.95	83% 28210-5788 (33998)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.5¢	$169.55	—	-$169.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$148.4	$300	+$151.6
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05ARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$251.42	$199.99	-$51.43	54% 3299-2835 (6134)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$218.8	—	-$218.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.3¢	$32.63	$199.99	+$167.36

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Down

Invested

$6,669.33

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$10.9K

Record

—

10-7 (17)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$3,951.17

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

55%

636-510 (1146)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$5,318.32

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

52%

222-202 (424)

RLWG

Down

Invested

$2,958.81

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

4110-3965 (8075)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$1,180.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

1870-1689 (3559)

JocJo

Down

Invested

$769.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$875

Record

51%

896-863 (1759)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$670.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$724.02

Record

54%

3678-3080 (6758)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR

Invested

$1,473.04

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

46%

325-382 (707)

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Down

Invested

$1,022.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$117

Record

54%

827-706 (1533)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$665.07

Value

$736

PnL

+$145.66

Record

53%

7303-6492 (13795)

Both legs:

Up$36748.6¢-$369.54

Down$220.830¢+$515.2

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Down

Invested

$1,022.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$737.53

Record

53%

1539-1341 (2880)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$1,123.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$706.43

Record

57%

1249-928 (2177)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$352.02

Value

$650.59

PnL

+$298.57

Record

65%

3151-1671 (4822)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$222.74

Value

$590

PnL

+$367.26

Record

81%

130-30 (160)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$546.71

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

60%

10550-7003 (17553)

asabovesobelow2ARB<$100

Invested

$337.25

Value

$446.96

PnL

+$109.71

Record

69%

1528-698 (2226)

Both legs:

Down$145.532.6¢+$301.46

Up$191.7553.7¢-$191.75

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176ARB<$100

Invested

$333.69

Value

$310.69

PnL

-$23

Record

54%

5730-4900 (10630)

Both legs:

Up$298.2853.4¢-$298.28

Down$35.4111.4¢+$275.28

arbfinder2026

Down

Invested

$602.21

Value

$909.09

PnL

+$306.88

Record

55%

4818-3895 (8713)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$326.71

Value

—

PnL

-$326.71

Record

60%

9446-6238 (15684)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$427.53

Value

—

PnL

-$427.53

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$252.5

Value

—

PnL

-$252.5

Record

71%

20609-8429 (29038)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$334.76

Value

$302.17

PnL

-$32.59

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

Both legs:

Down$102.7934¢+$199.38

Up$231.9769.9¢-$231.97

asdaasdaARB<$100

Invested

$297.23

Value

$225.11

PnL

-$72.12

Record

55%

914-741 (1655)

Both legs:

Down$43.1619.2¢+$181.95

Up$254.0753.7¢-$254.07

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$317.95

Value

$300

PnL

-$17.95

Record

83%

28210-5788 (33998)

Both legs:

Up$169.5556.5¢-$169.55

Down$148.449.5¢+$151.6

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05ARB<$100

Invested

$251.42

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$51.43

Record

54%

3299-2835 (6134)

Both legs:

Up$218.854.3¢-$218.8

Down$32.6316.3¢+$167.36

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 33 top traders (64%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x888172be...90f8e3

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792948500

Traders in this Market

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Down — $17.6K

+$10.9K

3123123121313

Down — $7.9K

+$4.0K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $12.0K

+$6.7K

RLWG

Down — $4.6K

+$1.6K

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $2.5K

+$1.4K

JocJo

Down — $1.6K

+$875

Bossgirl

Down — $1.4K

+$724.02

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Down — $1.1K

tmsd-test

Arbitrage — excluded