Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
39
Down 44%
$1.6K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 39 top traders (38%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 66.8¢ | $690.22 | $692.84 | +$2.62 | 60% 9446-6238 (15684) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $173 | $174.75 | +$1.75 | 93% 20381-1637 (22018) |
TM tmsd-test | Upavg 47¢ | $78.49 | $167 | +$88.51 | 53% 7303-6492 (13795) |
DE devonpoll | Upavg 58.9¢ | $83.5 | $141.73 | +$58.23 | 52% 16033-14835 (30868) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $85.21 | $93.77 | +$8.56 | 62% 40698-24908 (65606) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $42.33 | $74.27 | +$31.94 | 58% 11064-8112 (19176) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 56.8¢ | $44.29 | $55.08 | +$10.87 | 67% 13565-6732 (20297) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $34.85 | $52.13 | +$17.29 | 56% 14956-11913 (26869) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $50 | +$23.5 | 60% 10550-7003 (17553) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $13.59 | $19.99 | +$6.4 | 78% 240-68 (308) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $13.24 | $18.39 | +$5.15 | 58% 16229-11843 (28072) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $8.82 | $14.59 | +$5.77 | 76% 24117-7611 (31728) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $8.52 | $14.09 | +$5.57 | 62% 13878-8687 (22565) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $12.04 | $14 | +$1.96 | 57% 1249-928 (2177) |
RL RLWGCTR | Downavg 35.2¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $3.2 | $5.25 | +$2.05 | 63% 19117-11233 (30350) |
31 3123123121313CTR | Downavg 45.5¢ | $137.12 | — | -$137.12 | 55% 636-510 (1146) |
AS asabovesobelow2CTR | Downavg 48.6¢ | $142.25 | — | -$142.25 | 69% 1528-698 (2226) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $35 | — | -$35 | 53% 1870-1689 (3559) |
JO JocJoCTR<$100 | Downavg 46.5¢ | $31.47 | — | -$31.47 | 51% 896-863 (1759) |
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100 | Downavg 0.2¢ | $0.08 | — | -$0.08 | 70% 42131-17757 (59888) |
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202eCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $12.43 | — | -$12.43 | 53% 1539-1341 (2880) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 23% 72-240 (312) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 99.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 87% 47582-6858 (54440) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 41323-32809 (74132) |
Invested
$690.22
Value
$692.84
PnL
+$2.62
Record
60%
9446-6238 (15684)
Invested
$173
Value
$174.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
93%
20381-1637 (22018)
Invested
$78.49
Value
$167
PnL
+$88.51
Record
53%
7303-6492 (13795)
Invested
$83.5
Value
$141.73
PnL
+$58.23
Record
52%
16033-14835 (30868)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$85.21
Value
$93.77
PnL
+$8.56
Record
62%
40698-24908 (65606)
Invested
$42.33
Value
$74.27
PnL
+$31.94
Record
58%
11064-8112 (19176)
Invested
$44.29
Value
$55.08
PnL
+$10.87
Record
67%
13565-6732 (20297)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$52.13
PnL
+$17.29
Record
56%
14956-11913 (26869)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$26.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$23.5
Record
60%
10550-7003 (17553)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$6.4
Record
78%
240-68 (308)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.24
Value
$18.39
PnL
+$5.15
Record
58%
16229-11843 (28072)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$14.59
PnL
+$5.77
Record
76%
24117-7611 (31728)
Invested
$8.52
Value
$14.09
PnL
+$5.57
Record
62%
13878-8687 (22565)
Invested
$12.04
Value
$14
PnL
+$1.96
Record
57%
1249-928 (2177)
Invested
$1,524.65
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$2.05
Record
63%
19117-11233 (30350)
Invested
$137.12
Value
—
PnL
-$137.12
Record
55%
636-510 (1146)
Invested
$142.25
Value
—
PnL
-$142.25
Record
69%
1528-698 (2226)
Invested
$35
Value
—
PnL
-$35
Record
53%
1870-1689 (3559)
Invested
$31.47
Value
—
PnL
-$31.47
Record
51%
896-863 (1759)
Invested
$0.08
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
70%
42131-17757 (59888)
Invested
$12.43
Value
—
PnL
-$12.43
Record
53%
1539-1341 (2880)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
23%
72-240 (312)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
87%
47582-6858 (54440)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
41323-32809 (74132)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
Up — $692.84
hoodquant
Up — $174.75
tmsd-test
Up — $167
devonpoll
Up — $141.73
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $93.77
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $74.27
aaa221
Up — $55.08
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $52.13
wowitsamazing
Up — $50
beeemw
Up — $19.99