Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 32%
1 arb excluded
$445.48
-$567.08
Smart Money Signal
6 of 19 top traders (32%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Upavg 23.3¢ | $296.13 | — | -$296.13 | 60% 9405-6206 (15611) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 52.3¢ | $107.15 | — | -$107.15 | 57% 32394-24860 (57254) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $81.39 | $67 | -$14.39 | 56% 6853-5332 (12185) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 41.2¢ | $195.01 | — | -$195.01 | 56% 13478-10508 (23986) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $54.04 | $56.56 | +$2.52 | 62% 40571-24869 (65440) |
GO GoodRecipientARB<$100 | Upavg 35.5¢ | $38.3 | $40 | +$1.7 | 43% 542-705 (1247) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $21.3 | — | -$21.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $17 | $40 | +$23 | |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $48.07 | $36 | -$12.07 | 54% 9455-8054 (17509) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $34.08 | $71 | +$36.92 | 71% 20504-8371 (28875) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $23.83 | $25.08 | +$1.25 | 58% 11010-8076 (19086) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $24.13 | $24.08 | -$0.05 | 63% 18916-11136 (30052) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $20.97 | $23.89 | +$2.92 | 62% 13762-8615 (22377) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $22.82 | $26.81 | +$3.99 | 76% 23816-7542 (31358) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 47.9¢ | $20.15 | $42.11 | +$21.96 | 69% 27824-12306 (40130) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $11.3 | $9.88 | -$1.42 | 83% 59673-11815 (71488) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $7.92 | $16 | +$8.08 | 23% 13726-45775 (59501) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $3.25 | $5.16 | +$1.91 | 56% 14881-11866 (26747) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $2.05 | — | -$2.05 | 58% 16129-11743 (27872) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 76% 26083-8095 (34178) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $1.25 | $1.9 | +$0.65 | 65% 13433-7163 (20596) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $41.57 | — | -$17.01 | 67% 13368-6654 (20022) |
Invested
$296.13
Value
—
PnL
-$296.13
Record
60%
9405-6206 (15611)
Invested
$107.15
Value
—
PnL
-$107.15
Record
57%
32394-24860 (57254)
Invested
$81.39
Value
$67
PnL
-$14.39
Record
56%
6853-5332 (12185)
Invested
$195.01
Value
—
PnL
-$195.01
Record
56%
13478-10508 (23986)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$54.04
Value
$56.56
PnL
+$2.52
Record
62%
40571-24869 (65440)
Invested
$38.3
Value
$40
PnL
+$1.7
Record
43%
542-705 (1247)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.07
Value
$36
PnL
-$12.07
Record
54%
9455-8054 (17509)
Invested
$34.08
Value
$71
PnL
+$36.92
Record
71%
20504-8371 (28875)
Invested
$23.83
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
11010-8076 (19086)
Invested
$24.13
Value
$24.08
PnL
-$0.05
Record
63%
18916-11136 (30052)
Invested
$20.97
Value
$23.89
PnL
+$2.92
Record
62%
13762-8615 (22377)
Invested
$22.82
Value
$26.81
PnL
+$3.99
Record
76%
23816-7542 (31358)
Invested
$20.15
Value
$42.11
PnL
+$21.96
Record
69%
27824-12306 (40130)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$1.42
Record
83%
59673-11815 (71488)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$16
PnL
+$8.08
Record
23%
13726-45775 (59501)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$1.91
Record
56%
14881-11866 (26747)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
58%
16129-11743 (27872)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
76%
26083-8095 (34178)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.65
Record
65%
13433-7163 (20596)
Invested
$41.57
Value
—
PnL
-$17.01
Record
67%
13368-6654 (20022)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
trdyugiolkw
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $67
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $56.56
GoodRecipient
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
Down — $36
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $71
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $25.08
dvasdkasodk
Down — $24.08