Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 26%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$-14.4K

Smart Money Signal

7 of 24 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares33,632

Combined PnL$-15.4K

Down17 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,977

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI tin54321CTR	Upavg 46.7¢	$14.5K	—	$-14.5K	64% 43-24 (67)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 66.9¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$66.4	60% 9317-6132 (15449)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 16.9¢	$102.03	$594	+$491.97	70% 19712-8281 (27993)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 57.3¢	$381.1	$639.37	+$258.26	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
wowitsamazingCTR	Upavg 35.1¢	$618.35	—	-$618.35	63% 9777-5815 (15592)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$315.61	$311.61	-$4	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$208.63	$311.61	+$102.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.4¢	$106.98	—	-$106.98
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 59¢	$201.48	$341.35	+$139.87	56% 31413-24251 (55664)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 82.6¢	$139.51	$163	+$23.49	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 59.5¢	$100.23	$168.5	+$68.28	53% 7234-6436 (13670)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 62.4¢	$119.55	$191.53	+$71.98	64% 12116-6779 (18895)
RL RLWGCTR	Upavg 32.7¢	$145.9	—	-$145.9	51% 3533-3400 (6933)
BE berlinskiesCTR	Upavg 34.5¢	$157.93	—	-$157.93	57% 4708-3514 (8222)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$90.1	$62.17	+$0.25	58% 6469-4604 (11073)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$33.08	$52.55	+$19.48	62% 38229-23726 (61955)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$30.14	$36.61	+$6.47	61% 13569-8539 (22108)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.3¢	$22.73	$28.99	+$6.26	75% 22486-7474 (29960)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$22.65	$32.92	+$10.27	56% 14781-11800 (26581)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$19.84	—	-$19.84	69% 41473-18920 (60393)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$20.13	$23.42	+$3.29	62% 18051-11002 (29053)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	93% 20154-1617 (21771)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$8.31	$16.02	+$7.71	67% 23185-11428 (34613)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 68¢	$8.16	$12	+$3.84	83% 44804-8899 (53703)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$3.48	$7.08	+$3.6	58% 15987-11596 (27583)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.45	—	-$2.45	77% 41364-12330 (53694)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	52% 15316-14141 (29457)

tin54321CTR

Invested

$14,500

Value

—

PnL

$-14.5K

Record

64%

43-24 (67)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$1,666.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$66.4

Record

60%

9317-6132 (15449)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$102.03

Value

$594

PnL

+$491.97

Record

70%

19712-8281 (27993)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$381.1

Value

$639.37

PnL

+$258.26

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

wowitsamazingCTR

Invested

$618.35

Value

—

PnL

-$618.35

Record

63%

9777-5815 (15592)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$315.61

Value

$311.61

PnL

-$4

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

Both legs:

Down$208.6367¢+$102.98

Up$106.9834.4¢-$106.98

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$201.48

Value

$341.35

PnL

+$139.87

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$139.51

Value

$163

PnL

+$23.49

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$100.23

Value

$168.5

PnL

+$68.28

Record

53%

7234-6436 (13670)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$119.55

Value

$191.53

PnL

+$71.98

Record

64%

12116-6779 (18895)

RLWGCTR

Invested

$145.9

Value

—

PnL

-$145.9

Record

51%

3533-3400 (6933)

berlinskiesCTR

Invested

$157.93

Value

—

PnL

-$157.93

Record

57%

4708-3514 (8222)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$90.1

Value

$62.17

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

6469-4604 (11073)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$33.08

Value

$52.55

PnL

+$19.48

Record

62%

38229-23726 (61955)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$30.14

Value

$36.61

PnL

+$6.47

Record

61%

13569-8539 (22108)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$22.73

Value

$28.99

PnL

+$6.26

Record

75%

22486-7474 (29960)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$22.65

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$10.27

Record

56%

14781-11800 (26581)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

—

PnL

-$19.84

Record

69%

41473-18920 (60393)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$20.13

Value

$23.42

PnL

+$3.29

Record

62%

18051-11002 (29053)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$7.92

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

93%

20154-1617 (21771)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$8.31

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$7.71

Record

67%

23185-11428 (34613)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$8.16

Value

$12

PnL

+$3.84

Record

83%

44804-8899 (53703)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$3.48

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$3.6

Record

58%

15987-11596 (27583)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

—

PnL

-$2.45

Record

77%

41364-12330 (53694)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

15316-14141 (29457)

Smart Money Signal

7 of 24 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x19bdfa0c...26e078

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792914300

Traders in this Market

tin54321

CTR

Up — $0

$-14.5K

trdyugiolkw

Down — $1.6K

-$66.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $594

+$491.97

CrouchPredictions

Down — $639.37

wowitsamazing

Up — $0

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4

uninformedfloww

Down — $341.35

+$139.87

wzbbb

Down — $163

+$23.49

tmsd-test

Down — $168.5

+$68.28

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $191.53

+$71.98

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